A Review of Joel Barker book: Five Regions of the Future -

Preparing Your Business for Tomorrow's Technology Revolution

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Those who have already read Paradigms: The Business of Discovering the Future, already know that Barker is one of the most insightful and eloquent business thinkers in our time. Years ago, Peter Drucker suggested that one of the greatest challenges for any organization is to manage the consequences and implications of a future which has already occurred.

I agree. However, I also agree with Barker that it is possible to recognize what he calls a "paradigm shift": a major change of the rules and regulations that establish or define boundaries, a change which suggests that new behavior will be required within those redefined boundaries.

One of the most important concepts in Paradigms is what Barker calls "paradigm pliancy": "the purposeful seeking out of new ways of doing things. It is an active behavior in which you challenge your paradigms [ie the status quo, assumptions and premises] by asking the Paradigm Shift Question: What do I believe is impossible to do in my field, but if it could be done, would fundamentally change my business?"

This is a question which must be asked...and then answered correctly, especially given the fact that competitors may be doing so now or will do so in the near future. I again recall Wayne Gretzky's response when asked to explain his great success playing hockey: "Everyone knows where the puck is. I see where it will be." Barker does a brilliant job of explaining both how to "change the rules of the game" or at least recognize when such change is underway and then respond to it effectively.

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In Five Regions of the Future which Barker co-authored with Scott Erickson, the focus is on "a geography of technology so that we can better map our future. Just like locating our towns and cities on a physical map of the world, we need to locate, on some kind of conceptual map, the blizzard of new products and processes that are appearing [and will continue to appear] so we can better understand this `brave new world' of technology."

The reference to a "conceptual map" is especially appropriate because Barker and Erickson are introducing what I view as a new business discipline: cartology of paradynamic transformation. (Yes, I realize that it's a bit of a mouthful but, at this moment, I can't come up with anything better.) I am curious to know what would happen if senior managers in an organization were to read this book in combination with Kaplan and Norton's Book Strategy Maps in which they explain how to "convert intangible assets into tangible outcomes," and then formulated a game plan based on the core principles in each of the two books.

Barker and Erickson carefully organize their material within six chapters as they provide and explain what they characterize as "a new paradigm for understanding the development of all technology." I was especially interested in their observation that "the world is witnessing the birth of technological ecosystems constructed of human-made elements instead of biological elements."

They identify five TechnEcologies which have evolved during the past 100 years since the advent of the mass production of automobiles and steel. What are TechnEcologies? They are "the inevitable result of accumulating discoveries, inventions, and innovations of human beings." Each is a complex ecosystem of technology made up of the tools and techniques invented by humans "that interact in both mutualistic and competitive manners to increase the variety of technologies and the complexity of interaction."

According to Barker and Erickson, they can place almost any example of technology into one of the five regions of the future once they know the technology's dominant purpose or function. The nature of each of the five is revealed by the answers to these four value questions:

1. What is the region's attitude toward material wealth?

2. What is the region's view of science and technology?

3. How does the region view its relationship with nature?

4. Finally, what is the region's view of work and leisure?

If I understand their primary objective (and I may not), Barker and Erickson see themselves as 21st explorers who are attempting to define the future of technology just as Lewis and Clark once set out to define the vast and uncertain land west of the Mississippi River.

"In the twenty-first century, we need a more sophisticated way to catalog and describe our technology. We think the five regions offer that. As citizens of this new world, we all need to begin to think more systematically. The five regions methodology invites that. Our technologies are bigger than our nations. We need to understand the consequences of that."

Barker and Erickson conclude with a passage from a poem which William Blake wrote 200 years ago. His metaphor for technology was the tiger "burning bright/In the forests of the night." Now, another quite different "tiger" burns even brighter.

Here's mankind's eco-challenge: How to frame its "fearful symmetry"?
And what will be the consequences if we don't? In this context,

I am reminded of Robert Oppenheimer's reaction when the first atomic bomb was detonated more than 60 years ago. He immediately recalled a line from the Bhagavad Gita (The Song of God): "Now I am become death, the destroyer of worlds."

Those who share my high regard for this brilliant book are urged to check out Kaplan and Norton's The Strategy-Focused Organization as well as their Strategy Maps.

Also two books by Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, and, Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence; and finally, for now, Frans Johansson's The Medici Effect: Breakthrough Insights at the Intersection of Ideas, Concepts, and Cultures.

I truly envy those who have not as yet read any one of them.

What an intellectual feast awaits them!