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Past Meetings 2008

Page history last edited by Dale Stenseth 9 years, 2 months ago

Minnesota Futurists 2011 Home Page

2011 Current Meeting & Topic Schedule

Past Meeting Menu

 

January 5, 2008

Future Studies & Special Presentations

Title: Two Shots of Espresso and a Strep Test To Go, Please"

Guest Speaker: John Fraser, CEO, MEDNET USA

Moderator: David Keenan

Abstract: Consumers today enjoy quick service from coffee shops on every street corner. Services are fast and friendly, even for complex orders (make that a double espresso, skinny, with whipped cream please!).

When it comes to our arrangements for health care, we've come to expect delays, frustrations and long waits. How can we change this? The vision of MEDNET USA is to empower consumers to receive health care quickly, efficiently and at the point of care, whether it's in a new retail clinic like Minute Clinic, at the immunization clinic at school, in an emergency situation, or at your regular doctor's office. We'll do this by using an ATM-style card model to identify you, as a patient, then accessing an advanced directory system to identify where your health records are stored, and retrieving them securely.I'll outline how MEDNET USA is delivering on this vision, and what it will be like in 5-10 years to live in an environment where health care delivery flows as easily as a double cappuccino!

Visit http://www.mednet.org for more information. 2007-01-05-MN-Futurists.Talkv1.0.ppt

Also Open Source Health Care

The Rich Man's Michael Moore (Wall Street Journal, Feb. 23, 2008)

 

January 12, 2008

Econ Futures SIG

Title: "Investing Down The BRIC Road"

Discussion Leaders: Dick Saunders, Eric Hand and Roger Rydberg

Abstract: How and where to search for stocks, stock and country index funds (ETFs) and commodities that reflect the rising economies in emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC).

For more info see:ETF Charts

Jim Rogers video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEu5sqac99M

Wild Hog For China - Fortune Dec 2007; Hamburger Index

Latest China Investment News

Baltic Dry Index at http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

NOTE: A four-part series of follow-up classes for serious investors will tentatively start at 6 p.m. Thursday, April 24 and May 22 at Grand City Buffet, 8917 Hwy. 7, St.Louis Park (in Knollwood Mall. For further info, e-mail dicksaun@gmail.com or call 612/861-1061 after 5 p.m..

 

January 26, 2008

Society/Management Futures SIG

Title: Minnesota's Population: Past, Present and Future

Guest Speaker: Martha McMurry, PhD, Minnesota Demographers Office

Moderator: Ron Monroe

Abstract: This presentation will review demographic topics including the size of Minnesota's population, rate of growth, where people live, age, race and ethnicity, and fertility and mortality. View the presentation: MNFuturistsJan262008.ppt  

 

February 2, 2008

Future Studies & Special Presentations

Title:The Second Coming (of Computing) - A Manifesto: Excerpts from an Article on the Future of Computing

Discussion Leader: David Keenan

Abstract: Futurist David Gelernter,a professor of computer sciences at Yale, proposes a new structure to simplify the interface between computer and Internet. He was chief scientist at Mirror World Technologies, is author of several books, and writes columns for three arts/culture magazines and for newspapers.

Source Material: http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/gelernter/gelernter_p1.html

Presentation: MNF The Second Coming.ppt

Research Items Discussed:

Contact Lenses with Circuits - http://uwnews.washington.edu/ni/article.asp?articleID=39094 

Shape Shifting Robots - http://technology.newscientist.com/article/dn13244-shapeshifting-robot-forms-from-magnetic-swarm.html"

http://technology.newscientist.com/article/dn13244-shapeshifting-robot-forms-from-magnetic-swarm.html Microinsects - http://www.deviceguru.com.nyud.net:8080/2008/01/21/robotic-fly-to-descend-on-new-york/

Progress on Assembly of Synthetic Genome - http://www.rdmag.com/ShowPR.aspx?PUBCODE=014&ACCT=1400000100&ISSUE=0801&RELTYPE=LST&PRODCODE=0000000&PRODLETT=IK&CommonCount=0  

 

February 9, 2008

Economic Futures SIG

Title:“Streaming Media: Infinity and Beyond”

Guest Speaker: Dr. Remi Douah

Moderator: Jim Zitek

Abstract: Web 2.0 technologies give us the ability to create, add content and connect with a community of Internet users around the world. My presentation will focus on web-based video messaging, with a live demonstration of an innovative way to incorporate TV and streaming technology to provide a low-cost service to conduct group business and facilitate interactive teaching methods. remid@helloworld.com www.vmdirect.com/remid

Speaker's Bio: Remi Douah, Coordinator, Multicultural/Academic Affairs, University of Minnesota   Dr. Remi Douah served with a U.S. embassy in Africa developing highly interactive Internet communications strategies for use in African schools. He now markets interactive video services in the U.S. He also is an academic progress coordinator at the UM Multicultural Center for Academic Excellence (MCAE). Remi was a Fulbright Scholar from the Ivory Coast from 1989-1994 and received a master of arts in American studies from Michigan State University in 1991. He completed his Ph.D. in design, housing and apparel at Minnesota in 2006.  

 

February 16, 2008

Technology Futures SIG

Title: "Future of the Private Space Travel Industry" MNF

Discussion Leader: Dick Saunders

Moderator: Hank Lederer

Abstract: Space followers have been dreaming of a trip into space since the 1961 Mercury 7 suborbital flight by astronaut John Glenn. Now a group of well-endowed entrepeneurs are developing zero-gravity flights with reusable vehicles and launching platforms that may some day lead to regular commercial space trips to the moon and beyond.  Who are they and what are their visions? (Saunders covered aerospace news for the Minneapolis Tribune (1958-1961) and served as a public relations consultant to Honeywell's Aerospace Division during the Gemini and Apollo programs (1966-68).) Commercial Space Travel SIG Outline

Video: Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo Animated Flight

Video: Video: Spaceport America Construction Plans

Space PortSpace Terminal

Bezos Space Project (www.blueorigin.com)

bigelowaerospace.com spacex.com zerogen.com Orbiting Hotels (www. watg.com)

 

February 23, 2008

Society/Management Futures SIG

Title: "The Niche for Small Residual Biomass Plants"

Guest Speaker: Ulrich Bonne, Ph.D., Chemical Physicist, Consultant and CTO of MinneFuel, LLC

Moderator: David Keenan Abstract: Small biomass plants represent an opportunity to profitably make and operate a network of small plants to convert “small” sources of residual biomass from farm and forestry operations into renewable fuel or fertilizers. The presentation will detail availability of residual biomass, and why small plants, producing 10-30 gallons per hour (gal/h), can compete with large plants with outputs of 375-3750 gal/h (30-300 million gal/year) or the >300 million gal/y “big oil" producers, despite traditional scaling laws.

PB-08-Futurists-14-April.pdf Updated 14Apr08  

 

March 1, 2008

Future Studies & Special Presentations

Title: Managing Personal Change

MNF Discussion Leader: Brian K Toren

Moderator: David Keenan

Abstract: Everybody encounters change that affects their personal and/or professional life. This change can be for the good or the bad, ranging from a death in the family, job loss, home loss to winning the lottery. We deal with change in different ways and spans of time. The transition  depends on the severity and source of the change; whatever the case, individuals go through a similar transition. This transition has several stages to pass through before the individual can move on. These are: > The triggering event > Grief > Denial > Acceptance of need to move on > Insight - using creativity to address the change response   This SIG will guide the participant through a past, present or expected future transition and ask how he/she could have or can do better. Each person attendee will fill out a form that will help in the transition.   

 

March 8, 2008

Economic and Investment Futures

Title: "Sovereign Wealth Funds: Threat or Boon to U.S. Economic and Political Independence?"

Speaker: Dick Saunders

Abstract: More than 40 sovereign wealth funds with bank balances exceeding $1.5 trillion have been organized by both democratic nations and  conservative kingdoms to invest trade surpluses in U.S. and other foreign companies, or to build infrastructure in the home country. Over time, will these unregulated funds be used to buy control of geopolitically sensitive or critical U.S. resources, and eventually represent a threat to U.S political security? Or will such foreign purchases be accepted as timely examples of an increasingly interdependent world of high finance?  

 

March 15, 2008

Technology Futures SIG

Title: "Cornucopia of Technology Futures"

Discussion Leader: Hank Lederer

Abstract: A wide array of future technology items will be reviewed and discussed.  Bring your ideas, items, articles, weblinks from readings, activities, internet searches, etc on coming & potential technological changes and breakthroughs.  Prepare a 2-3 minute pitch. To be added:Lost Technology Withers Leadership, Growth, and Vitality.doc   

 

March 22, 2008

Peace SIG

Title: The Middle East Peace Process - Is It Dead? MNF Speaker: Roger Rydberg Moderator: Dick Saunders Abstract: The outlook for the troubled Israel/Palestine peace process. A video "Life in Occupied Palestine" captures extensiveness of Israeli encroachment on Palestinian land and everyday lives. What are possible long-range solutions to long-term peace in the region? What is the state of current Bush administration initiatives to press for negotiations? What positions have 2008 U.S. presidential candidates taken?

References : Iraq War - Israel LinkPeace Talks Going NowhereMcCain Obama Face Off On IsraelBush's Peace EffortsThe Real Story Yet To Come

Middle East History

Jimmy Carter - Middle East Analysis

A Realistic Peace Plan

Map Of Israel

 

March 29, 2008

Management, Society and Education SIG

Title: "Community Boxing Program"

Guest Speaker: A.J. Moon

Moderator: David Keenan

Abstract: Boxing As A Discipline

 

April 5, 2008

Future Studies & Special Presentations

Title: Energy Conservation Experiments; Alternative Energy Examples In This Area"

Guest Speaker: Dale Stenseth

Moderator: David Keenan

Abstract: Starting with the big picture, the US Energy Flows for 2002 and 2006 are compared and contrasted.  Energy flow forecasts through 2030 are included.  A few home conservation experiments over a 30 year period are described, some with unexpected, or unintended consequences.  Examples of local alternative energy sources will be described, including successes and failures.  Conclusion will be an open discussion of SWOT, (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) for various energy sources.

Reference Links:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeoref_tab.html   US Energy Flow Forecast to 2030

http://www.stenseth.org/adventure/energy.html    Working note space and pictures.

 

April 12, 2008

Econ Futures SIG

Title:"Securing a Clean Energy Future: The Case for Action"

Video Summary of Governors' Conference Proceedings, Jan. 2008

Speakers: Thomas L. Friedman, author and columnist for The New York Times)

Jeffrey R. Immelt (Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, General Electric Company

Discussion Leader: Roger Rydberg

Ref.

Plenary Friedman Video

Plenary Immelt Video

Conference Agenda

 

April 19, 2008

Society, Management and Education SIG

Title: "How Does Technology Evolve?"

Video of Kevin Kelly: "How Does Technology Evolve?:

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/19 24 minutes http://www.poptech.org/popcasts/PopCasts.aspx?viewcastid=37 24 minutes THE TECHNIUM AND THE 7TH KINGDOM OF LIFE essay

http://www.edge.org/documents/archive/edge217.html

Moderator: David Keenan Kevin Kelly has been publisher of the Whole Earth Review, executive editor at WIRED, founder of visionary nonprofits, and writer on biology and business and "cool tools." 

 

April 26, 2008

Technology SIG

Title: "Printing Nanoparticles"

Speaker: Mike Renn, PhD, Optomec

Moderator: Hank Lederer/Dave Keenan

Abstract: 3D printers may be the next "Big Thing." Is "Just-In-Place-Manufacturing" soon to be in our future.

 

May 3, 2008

Future Studies & Special Presentations

Title: Biometric Identification - biometric systems for personal identification

Speaker: David Keenan

Abstract: This will provide background regarding the state of biometric technologies for identification.    We will discuss the materials in preparation for the June 7 workshop. Presentation:Biometric Identification.ppt

 

May 10, 2008

Econ Futures SIG

Title:"Will World Credit Crisis Get Worse?"

Discussion Leaders: Dick Saunders and Roger Rydberg

Abstract: The world credit crisis is now estimated at $300 trillion, and may be closer to $700 trillion when credit default swaps are included. How and when do we stop the waterfall that has nearly drowned world derivative trading markets -- and created huge losses for value investors -- for six months? Four of the world's leading economists, investors and regulators give us some hints. Background:

Niagara Falls

Book or Video: Stiglitz on the Economy

George Soros Interview with Reuters - April 3

Warren Buffet's Annual Message to Shareholders - May 3

Citigroup, AIG, GM Rescap Suffer Heavy 1Q LossesBonds Ready To Crack?NY Times - Triple-A Failure of Regulation$200 Oil Coming?

 

May 17, 2008

Technology SIG

Title: "Pursuit of the 'God' Particle"

Discussion Co-leaders: Brian Toren and Dick Saunders

Abstract: The world's largest particle accelerator, under construction by CERN in Switzerland/France, will soon open to allow physicists to search for the long-sought Higgs Boson, or "God" particle, because it would represent the smallest discernable energy force in the universe.

Background Sources: (March 2008) national geographic

 

May 24, 2008

Education, Management, and Society SIG

Title: "Our Disinformation Society -- Where Is it Leading Us?"

Discussion Leader: Jack Carter Video Producer and Director: George Paulos

Presentation: Disinformation Society.ppt

Post Presentation Recap: Disinformation Society Recap.doc

Abstract: What is disinformation? How do we identify it from "true information"? Governments have used it negatively for years to sway public opinion in favor of war, and positively to rally public opinion in times of crisis. Politicians use it daily to attempt to swing public sentiment to their side. So do corporations, through their lobbyists, newspaper, radio and TV news and opinion columns. What role does the media play--as early warning detectors, or flag-waving supporters--as these causes evolve? How do we develop the critical reading and listening skills to minimize errant decisions in our personal lives, businesses and society at large? And how do Joseph Campbell's widely accepted myth theories of the mid-1990s come into play in formulating company team-building strategies in the super-competitive world of the next decade?

 

May 31, 2008

Peace Futures SIG

Title:"Where Ends the Chase for Bin Laden?"

Discussion Leaders: Dick Saunders and Roger Rydberg

Guest Speaker: Army Specialist Roderick Rotzien

Abstract: The Taliban have revived their attacks on southeast Afghanistan. Pakistan is believed to be continuing to harbor Bin Laden. The two Pakistani coalition leaders elected to replace former President Musharraf have split over restoration of banned supreme court justices. Meanwhile, the U.S.-backed Karzai government appears to have been unable to establish control. What outcomes -- military or diplomatic -- might be feasible as the Afghan war enters its seventh year? Specialist Rotzien will tell stories about his first-hand encounters with Baghdad street insurgents from behind the wheel of an Abrams tank during two tours of duty in Iraq. Background: Latest Analysis of U.S. Search Problems:www.nytimes.com

 

June 7, 2008

Future Studies & Special Presentations

Title: Positive Personal Identification - A Comprehensive Systems Analysis Workshop

or Biometric Identification for US Citizens, Visitors and Guests

Speaker: Bill Peter

Moderator: Dave Keenan

Abstract: Comprehensive System Analysis Methods As we develop possible and likely scenarios for the future, it is important that we broadly analyze the key variables and the potential consequences and possible unintended consequences. "Ethanol from corn" is a recent major mistake for our society because such a comprehensive systems analysis was not undertaken by  Congress. And the next alternative energy source -- cellulosic ethanol -- looks worse.

In this workshop, we will tackle a challenging subject "Biometric identification of all U.S. citizens, residents and guests" as a study team and work toward a First Draft of a Comprehensive Systems Analysis.

Positive Personal Identification.ppt

 

June  14, 2008

Econ Futures SIG

Title:"Economics For A Crowded Planet" Econ For A Crowded Planet - Synopsis

Discussion Leaders: Ulrich Bonne and Roger Rydberg

Abstract:

Amazon The Book

Also: http://www.sachs.earth.columbia.edu/commonwealth/index.php

Review of a new book by Prof. Jeffrey Sachs

Economist Jeffrey Sachs says that the world's population, climate change, poverty and resource use are all closely intertwined. In his book Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet, Sachs argues that humanity must address global problems on a global scale. "One-sixth of the world remains trapped in extreme poverty unrelieved by global economic growth," Sachs writes. "The poverty trap poses tragic hardships for the poor and great risks for the rest of the world."  Sachs asserts that solutions are readily at hand. He focuses on four challenges: heading off global warming and environmental destruction; stabilizing the world's population; ending extreme poverty, and breaking the political logjams that hinder global cooperation on these issues.  Sachs's entire agenda would cost less than 3% of the world's annual income. He notes that a mere two days' worth of Pentagon spending would fund a comprehensive antimalaria program for Africa, saving countless lives. Forthright government action is the key to avoiding catastrophe, the author contends, not the unilateral, militarized approach to international problems practiced by the current administration. See: Global American Technology Alliances

for Sachs"s suggestions for our next president:

1.  end the Iraq war because money spent there can be better spent elsewhere;

2.  end the Bush tax cuts of 2003;

3.  invest more heavily in sustainable energy initiatives;

4.  dispatch a climate envoy to the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China)

5.  stop 1/3 of our corn crop going to produce fuel (ethanol);

6.  sign the international convention on biodiversity;

7.  invite African and Middle East leaders to participate in the drylands initiative to address hunger and water shortages;

8.  reestablish the United Nations Population Fund;

9.  reinstitute the UN's Millennium Development goals to get US out of last place in donating only .16% of our income to world needs;

10. create a U.S. cabinet-level department for international sustainable development

Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs is the Director of The Earth Institute, Quetelet Professor of Sustainable Development, and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University. From 2002 to 2006 he was also Director of the UN Millennium Project and Special Advisor to United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan on the Millennium Development Goals to reduce extreme poverty, disease and hunger by 2015. Sachs is also President and Co-Founder of Millennium Promise Alliance, a non-profit organization aimed at ending extreme global poverty.   For additional but supportive views, see: Earth The Sequel by Fred Krupp Or See: World Population Situation

 

June 21, 2008

Technology SIG

Title: "Nuclear Power's Downside: Waste Storage Capacity Limited; Yucca Mountain a Political Football"

Discussion Leaders: Brian Toren and Dick Saunders   Abstract: Nuclear power construction in the U.S. stopped at 104 in 1970 with the Three-Miile Island plant's partial meltdown. And, for legal and NIMBY reasons, undersized Yucca Mountain in Nevada may never open as the nation's permanent nuclear waste depository. Yet, the U.S. government is offering the moribund nuclear industry $18 billion in incentives to restart production of new or improved reactor designs. How will we be able to dispose safely of old and new spent fuel rods after on-site storage capacity is reached in Minnesota and elsewhere?

NRC - Atomic Renaissance Is a Bad Idea

 

June 28, 2008

Education, Management and Society

Title:  Is America Taking Adequate Steps to Eliminate Voter Fraud in Future Elections?

Discussion Leader: David Keenan (for Hank Lederer) Moderator:

Abstract: Video "UNCOUNTED" is an explosive new documentary that shows how the election fraud that changed the outcome of the 2004 election led to even greater fraud in 2006 - and now looms as an unbridled threat to the outcome of the 2008 election. This controversial feature length film by Emmy award-winning director David Earnhardt examines in factual, logical, and yet startling terms how easy it is to change election outcomes and undermine election integrity across the U.S. Noted computer programmers, statisticians, journalists, and experienced election officials provide the irrefutable proof. Take-home suggestions for improving the system: 1. Near-term: Volunteer as election judge and register by July 1 for the next elections 2. Long term: Save paper, voter-labor, vote-counting labor, and vote counting system cost by adapting the existing/safe IRS tax handling system for voting for state and federal office. Voter Fraud Issues  Presentation: MNF Election and Voting Concerns.ppt

 

6-30-2008

wikipedia - Bin_Laden Lost At Tora Bora Pakistan Peace Issues Musharraf and Bin Laden Afghan Issues

Taliban Regaining Hold

The Status of the Military

War Report Afghanistan

 

July 5, 2008

Special Interest Group Discussion

Title: Suggestions for Minnesota's Energy Future PB-08-Futurists-7-Jul.pdf

Lead Speakers: Ulrich Bonne, David Grider, Brian Toren and Dick Saunders

Moderator: Dick Saunders 

Abstract:

US Oil Production Trends

A Minneapolis/St.Paul StarTribune "Counterpoint" article by U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar entitled "The Energy Crisis: Only Bold Steps Will Help," (P. 19, May 17, 2008) did not focus on specifics but reminded us to not expect one "silver bullet" but rather a "silver shot" to achieve clean, renewable, sustainable, secure and "independent" energy sources free of fossil fuels. The SIG speakers seek uideas from Minnesota Futurists and viewers showing, for example:

How does the retail price of gasoline depend on each link in the supply chain from well to pump. What measures and incentives, if any, should be incorporated into a clean energy bill while simultaneously respecting the laws of supply and demand? Does speculatiion on oil in the futures market influence the retail price -- and if so, how could that be avoided? 

What criteria and measurements can and should be applied to justify specific gov. energy subsidies,if any, to bridge the time period between today's economic non-viability of some energy sources and projected future viability, sustainability and energy independence?

How would the Minnesota economy benefit if it produced locally 1 billion gallons of gasoline per year (of the total 2.8 billion gals. used in 2007), rather than relying solely on imports?

What alternative fuels could efficiently be substituted for each of its present main users?

What savings could be achieved if all new passenger vehicles sold in Minnesota achieved an EPA mileage rating of >30 (or even >40) miles/gallon after allowing manufacturers to meet higher CAFE standards? Will hybrid vehicles using electric or hydrogen power help? Is ethanol's future in jeopardy, if the water use for its production cannot be reduced?

Should new homes be required to feature 1) alternative sources such as solar water heaters and backyard wind turbines, and 2) insulation standards now required for (electric) heat pump homes?

Should subsidies be used (and if so, how large) to encourage foresters and farmers to install residual biomass conversion systems to make fuels or fertilizers?

What incentives might help spur reductions in paper consumption (such as for advertising billboards, flyers, posters, and other business mail, telephone books, and newsprint)

Would increased public transportation services such as high-speed buses and more light rail lines reduce gasoline and diesel fuel consumption?

What can we learn from the nuclear contribution to electricity in France? How far into the future is nuclear fusion?

Can we learn from or adapt the proactive (banking on projected future cost reductions) renewable energy subsidies Germany provides for solar, wind and biomass?

Other ideas? 

More Info:

State Policy Impact On Solar 

We aim to come up with a balanced approach – but also view that as just one of the criteria. Actually, the “right thing” for MN may not be viewed as “balanced” at all, if we think that to achieve “survival” and a better std. of living in MN 10-50 years from now, we need to make some sacrifices today.

 

Other criteria we should also consider is whether we adequately address:

The economic impact of any mandated conservation and subsidy/incentive measures

The environmental impact of any mandated conservation and subsidy/incentive measures 

Are any mandated conservation and subsidy/incentive measures in or out of line with federal or other states’ measures?

History lessons: Measures MN should have taken some time back. Will we repeat our past mistakes? 

The MN energy-independence impact of any mandated conservation and subsidy/incentive measures

Solar home tax incentives by state

 

July 12, 2008

Economic SIG

Title: Possible Futures for Minnesota Air Service

Moderator: Dick Saunders

Panelists: Jeff Hamiel, executive director, Metropolitan Airports Commission (MAC), and Jim Spensley, president of the South Metro Airport Action Council (SMAAC), the oldest citizen advocacy group for quieter neighborhoods around Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP). 

 

Since March, soaring fuel prices, a slumping economy and excess capacity have forced five U.S. airline bankruptcies or service cessations. More are forecast by industry experts for 2009 if high fuel prices continue. Since their merger agreement this spring, Northwest and Delta have each announced plans to reduce service nationwide this fall. Will this reduction result in any national discount carriers entering the Minnesota market? How will regional carriers adjust? And how much more will ticket prices have to rise?

 

Ref. Airlines - Sunset Industry?

Airline News

Second Go-around Problem at JFK in 8 Days: http://mail.google.com/mail/#inbox/11b1554475445fc1

Following are the "odds" Jim Spensley of SMAAC associated with the three merger scenarios he testified about in the MN House Commerce Committee Hearings in Spring 2008:

 

 5 in 10 that most old NWA jobs will be cut or re-located to right-to-work states, and a Delta/NWA flight reduction of 60% to 70% by landed weight will occur at MSP within 15 to 18 months after the merger.

 

4 in 10 that MSP continues as a major hub because of MAC incentives (more revenue-sharing, Lindbergh expansion, gate policy changes, etc.) that help Delta consolidate connecting services, increasing the hubbing factor compared to 2007 and slow if not stop work at Humphrey.  No new airlines will come here.

 

1 in 10 that that hub operations are continued but reduced during a continuing economic downturn.  Delta cash may make the decline more gradual, but the prospect is down before up. The major airlines could all fall into bankruptcy again.  This time, Delta headquarters will be in Georgia with the same guy in charge (Richard Anderson) who bailed out here.

 

Dick, I believe that the business market will decline slightly as business travelers consolidate trips to save expenses but will continue to travel at a fairly normal rate. On the other hand, the leisure travel will decline significantly. Both younger travelers and older retirees will cut back or stop flying all together. This condition will continue for the next 12 to 18 months. After this period, travel will adjust to the new fare structures and I believe we will see some return to more normal levels. However, traffic will not return to the full level for the next several years. In the long run, I still believe MSP will reach 45-50 million passengers per year by 2025 if Delta treats MSP as a major hub and grows with the market.

 

July 26, 2008

Education SIG

Title: What Are Possible Workplace and Cultural Impacts of Immigration Trends in the Next Decade?

Guest Speaker: Elizabeth Glidden, 8th Ward Council Member, Minneapolis City Council

MNF Speaker: Ron Monroe

Moderator: Dick Saunders

Abstract: Ms. Glidden will continue a discussion on recent immigration trends in the Twin Cities she introduced at Minnesota Day at the World Future Society Conference in Minneapolis in July 2007. Mr. Monroe will review world immigration trends. Ms. Glidden will review her research and personal experiences dealing with such trends as an elected city official responsible for policy-making.

 

August 2, 2008

Future Studies and Special Presentations SIG

Title: China Futures - An Introduction and Exploration Methods

Presenter: David Keenan

Abstract: The 2008 Summer Olympics has prompted us to launch a special series of SIGs on "The Future of China." Running through November, speakers will explore the cultural, economic, education and diplomatic practices of a distant and different country projected to become the world's largest economic power in three decades. We will utilize futures methodologies to examine potential effects on U.S. growth.

 

Special Guest: Peter Hammond, a former executive with Westinghouse, Emerson Electric and Polaris Industries who spent 20 years setting up manufacturing facilities in China. He resided there for seven years, and speaks Mandarin. Now CEO of AsiaSource, he assists Chinese firms seeking export markets in  the U.S. He is a member of the US-China Business Connections trade group based in Minneapolis.

Presentation Notes: HO-China Intro Aug08.doc

 

August 9

Economics and Finance Futures SIG

Title: China Demographic and Economic Futures

Presenter: Arnie Kwong

Abstract: The China Challenge2008.pdf

Reference Information:

The New China 2008

China - No End In Sight

New China - The Edwin Reischauer Lectures

Amazon: The Book 2008

 

August 16, 2008

Technology Futures SIG

Title: China: Industry, Patents, Education and more

Presenter: Professor Massoud Amin, UMN (bio http://cdtlnet.cdtl.umn.edu/amin.html)

Moderator: David Keenan

Abstract: China_Aug2008.pdf

 

August 23, 2008

Society, Management and Education SIG

Title: The Global Food Crisis: Where Did It Come From and What Will The Future Bring?

Presenter: Jim Harkness

Abstract: When grain prices reached historic highs earlier this year and food riots broke out in dozens of countries, governments and experts were quick to point fingers. How did this happen? Was it biofuels? protectionism? Climate change? or those Chinese and Indians, with their growing taste for meat? Presenter Jim Harkness explains where the crisis came from and gives his thoughts on where our food system is going.

 

Harkness is President of the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy (IATP), a Minnesota-based non-profit that works to promote fair and sustainable food, farm and trade systems. He lived for 16 years in China, where he worked as a Ford Foundation program officer, wildlife researcher, university instructor and Country Director for the World Wildlife Fund (WWF).

 Ref. Info: Business/Economy Exports

 

August 30, 2008

Peace SIG

Title: No Meeting -  special speaker Aug. 31: see: Iran's Nuclear Status - Scott Ritter

 

September 6, 2008

Future Studies

Title: 100 Trends for the 21st Century + 10 more

Presenter: David Keenan

Abstract: James Canton, Institute of Global Futures, has presented many lists of top trends for the 21st Century.  We will examine some of these.

Presentation: 100 Top Trends.ppt

 

September 13, 2008

Economics and Finance Futures SIG

Title: Beyond The Headlines:How to Use Critical Thinking Skills to Determine the Real Story

Presenter: James D.Zitek

Abstract:

Most people learn about the economy and the stock market from the mass media. Hours are spent reading newspapers and magazines, watching television news and searching the Internet. Once this information has been absorbed, it is filed away as knowledge. So, the more time spent reading and listening, the smarter you get, right?Not exactly.

 

What most people do not realize is how much media information is dramatized, mis-interpreted, over-simplified or statistically inaccurate. Surprisingly, the problem is not always political bias; sometimes the stories are just not written very accurately or clearly. Consequently, much of the information you receive about the economy and capital markets can be harmful to your business or your financial health. 

 

This presentation outlines a six-step process used to get at the real story behind the headline (including a real time demonstration of the process as it is being explained), and concludes with examples of the most common mistakes made when trying to understand the economy and the markets. 

 

This presentation is intended to:

 

  1. Open minds to new opportunities and potential problems, 

  2. Expand the breath and depth of our knowledge in selected areas, 

  3. Help us become better decision makers,

  4. Increase the confidence and staying power of our decisions.

 

Background Material:What's Happening To Our Daily Newspaper

 

September 20, 2008 

Technology Futures

Title: Automotive Futures

Presenter: Hank Lederer

Abstract: Hank likes cars and will tell us what he sees coming down the lane.

 

September 27, 2008 

Society, Management and Education Futures

Title: Ten World-Class Management Principles For The Twenty First Century

Ten World-Class Management Principles for the 21st Century

Presenter: Bill Peter

Abstract: Bill Peter, Consultant/Futurist will be presenting this workshop in China in October.

On 9/27/08, the Minnesota Futurists will have a free preview. The ten management

principles have been developed by Bill in conjunction with his consulting clients and his MBA students at Cardinal Stritch University over the last eight years.

 

October 4, 2008

Future Studies and Special Presentations SIG

Title: Project 10^100 (Google's $10 million, 10th Anniversary Project)

Presenter: David Keenan

Abstract: If you could suggest a unique idea that would help as many people as possible, what would it be?

It's a question worth considering. Never in history have so many people had so much information, so many tools at their disposal, so many ways of making good ideas come to life. Yet at the same time so many people (in all walks of life) could use some help, in small ways and big. In the midst of this, new studies are reinforcing the timeless wisdom that beyond a basic level of material wealth, the only thing that seems to increase individual happiness is... helping other people. In other words, help helps everybody.

 

But what would help, and what would be most helpful? We don't believe we have the answers, but we do believe the answers are out there. Maybe in a lab, or a company, or a university -- or maybe not. Maybe the answer that helps somebody is in your head, in something you've observed, some notion that you've been fiddling with, some small connection you've noticed, some old way of doing something that you've seen with new eyes.

 

To mark our 10th birthday and celebrate the spirit of our users and the web, we're launching Project 10^100 (that's "ten to the hundredth") a call for ideas that could help as many people as possible, and a program to bring the best of those ideas to life. CNN will be covering this project, including profiles of ideas and the people who submit them from around the world. For a deeper look, follow along at Impact Your World.

 

Ideas are due by October 20, 2008. Get started submitting your own ideas, and come back on January 27th to vote on ideas from others. We hope you feel inspired enough to try. Good luck, and may the ones who help the most win.  http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2008/09/project-10100.html

 

Presentation:Google’s 10^100 Project updated.ppt - Read and add your comments!

 

October 11, 2008

Economics and Finance Futures SIG

Title: U. S. Financial Crisis--Will the Rescue Plan Work?

Presenters: Roger Rydberg and Dick Saunders

Abstract: Congress, on a second try, approved a bill adding $800 billion to the previous $700 billion of aid to the financial services industry in early October to unfreeze the U.S.credit crisis. Meanwhile, the pain has spread to European and Asian banks. Thursday major countries joined the U.S. Federal Reserve in reducing their interbank interest rates for the first time in history. The U.S. rate was cut from 2.0% to 1.5%. Convinced that the relief plan is inadequate, worldwide stock markets have plunged to five-year lows. A growing number of analysts believe a U.S. recession is imminent. Will more tools be required to thaw the freeze and rebuild confidence? You get to vote.

How To Save The Financial System Sept. 2008

Also see:

How the Banking System Really Works

The Greenspan Legacy

The End of American Hegemony?

The_Risk of a_Bank_Run

"A Better Bailout" by Joseph Stiglitz

'Paul Craig Roberts' Take

Bailout Failure 08-29-08

Build a Better Bailout Plan 9-25-08

Consumer Union Plan 9-25-08

Why Don't Economics Textbooks Focus on Financial Crises?

 

October 18, 2008

Technology Futures SIG

Title: Genomics Futures

Presenter: Eric Hand

Abstract: What genomics has revealed about what we are and where we came from.

Also, what it can do for and to us in the future.

Presentation: HO Genomics.ppt Updated 1Nov08

 

October 25, 2008

Society, Management and Education SIG

Title: A Little of Lots of Things

Presenters: Everyone

: Bill Peter - A view of the news from China via BBC

  Brian Toren - "The Elephant and the Dragon - The Rise of China and India and What It Means for All of Us," audio book by Robyn Meredith 2008

(available for loan - contact Dave Keenan)

  Jack Carter - "Does America Need a Foreign Policy?" - Henry Kissinger book (2001)

  Ron Monroe - Jeff Bezos on Oprah and endorsement of the Amazon Kindle

Bill Peter - "When the US gets a cold, the rest of the world gets pneumonia"

Ron Monroe - "World in the Balance - The People Paradox" - PBS video from Nova series (DVD available for loan - contact Ron M)

  Suggestion for Future SIG - Globalization of Crime (this week's Time magazine "Other countries have the Mafia. In Bulgaria, the Mafia has the country."

Anyone interested in developing contact Dave K.

 

Nov. 1, 2008

Monthly Futures Practice SIG

Title: Qualities of a Successful Entrepeneur

Presenter: Duane Carlson with Dave Keenan

Abstract: Duane Carlson has studied entrepeneurship for two decades. He will discuss the ingredients that can make a difference between success and failure.

Presentation: HO ENTREPRENEURSHIP 01Nov08.pptx

 

Nov. 8, 2008

Economics and Market SIG

Title: Recession Ahead?

Speakers: Roger Rydberg and Dick Saunders

Abstract: Most indicators point to one. How deep and how long? Will the current world credit crisis accelerate the timing? What steps should the new administration take?

Also See:

Recovery Predictions Oct 2008

Comparison 1929 - 2008 Crash

Stocks After The Crash

Will the Economic Crash Take Down Hopes for Clean Energy

St Louis fed BORROW Graph

Reversal of Fortune - Joseph Stiglitz

Are We Half Way Through Recession

Third Quarter GDP Estimates

3rd Qtr GDP Negative

US Economy - Rocky Road Ahead

Comparison 1929 - 2008 Crash

Globalization Enters New Phase

Jobless Rate Up in October

Pawn Broker Business Booms

No Quick Turn Around Seen

Liz Sonders Estimate On Recession

 

Nov. 15, 2008

Technology SIG

Title: Cryptography and Snakes

Speaker: H. Tom Trites

Abstract: Hiding the meaning of messages -- how it's done, how it's undone, and how it's frequently snake oil. Now with Quantum Perfection! Or, is that just a very tiny snake? 

(PowerPoint and .pdf coming, sorry for the delay -- htom)

 

Nov. 22, 2008

Management SIG

Title: Special Report: My Impressions of China

Speaker: Bill Peter

Abstract: Management futurist Bill Peter will discuss the results of his recent three-week tour of China, as part of the ongoing Minnesota Futurist China SIG series.  www.2020and2035.com Click on China, Capitalism and 2035 link to full essay.

 

Nov. 29, 2008

Peace and Justice SIG

Title: Scale-up Coming in Afghanistan War, Then What?

Presenters: Dick Saunders and Roger Rydberg

Abstract: Gen. Patraeus Takes Over CENTCOM; Can His Iraq Success Carry Over? Obama and Gates Support 20,000 More Troops, More International Help; Obama to Focus on Search for bin Laden; Karzai Praises, Criticizes Progress; Will Terrorist Attacks on Mumbai Delay Negotiations?; Three Possible Long-Term Solutions for Discussion;

Video: PBS Frontline Documentary 11-08

Background:

Afghan News Roundup

Afghan Leader Demands Plan for Foreign Forces' Departure

The War In Pakistan Nov 2008

Afghan Issues

Taliban Regaining Hold

Gates Backs Troop Surge

 Musharraf and Bin Laden

New Plan for Afghanistan

Pakistan's Anti-Muslim Taliban

Pakistan Peace Issues

Pakistan s 2009 Outlook

Patraeus Biography http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petraeus

Pro-Kashmir Group in Pakistan Suspected of Mumbia Terrorism

 

Dec. 6, 2008

Technology Futures SIG

Title: Quantum Weirdness, The Stock Market and Time Travel

Presenters: Brian Toren, Hank Lederer

Abstract: What is it that makes the quantum world so weird; where cats are dead and alive simultaneously; things can't be measured acccurately, electrons can communicate instantaneously over any distance; and more perplexing to physicists, it doesn't mesh with gravity?

Can this quantum weirdness be used in the real world? It can, hence we have transistors and semiconductors. A researcher has a new idea: "The use of quantum weirdness to receive a message from the future so he can buy stocks with 100% assurance." This theory depends on "time travel," passing a message back in time. Is time travel possible? Do the Future and the Past really exist? If possible, how do we travel? Physicists differ. An alternative theory will be addressed.

 

Dec. 13, 2008

Economics and Market SIG

Title: "Why This Recession Will Be Worse Than The Last Five"

Presenters: Dick Saunders and Roger Rydberg

Abstract: Evidence mounts daily that this recession, now officially declared to have started in December 2007, will exceed the 1980-81 contraction and possibly challenge older ones in severity. We'll compare the last five contractions and the Great Depression of 1929-32. Will Obama's recovery plan be enough to stem the tide, or merely create inflation? An update of world economic forecasts for 2009-10.

References:

Investors are expecting a lot of deflation

The US Economy's Best Bet -The Intangible Sector

Dire World Bank Forecast for Global Economy and Trade

How long will the recession last

BW- Economy Slides into Deeper Slump

One and Half Cheers For Socialism

 

Dec. 20, 2008

Technology SIG

Title: "Biofuels from Algae?"

MNF Speaker: Hank Lederer

Moderator: Dick Saunders

Abstract: Does algae (lowly "pond scum") truly have the potential of helping reduce our dependence on fossil fuels? Can technology overcome present hurdles to grow, harvest, and produce algal on a commercial basis? A look at a carbon neutral source of energy.

References: BIOFUELS FROM ALGAE.doc 

 

Dec. 27, 2008

Economic SIG

Title: Minnesota's Budget Shortfall

MNF speaker: Dick Saunders

Moderator: Roger Rydberg

Abstract: How did Minnesota's May forecast for a $900-million budget deficit for 2009-10 deteriorate into a $5.2-billion deficit prospect in six months? Where do the legislature and governor make cuts that will likely impact virtually every >state program? An analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the underlying state economy 1990-2003. (Part 1 of a three-part series.)

Reference Info:

Revenue forecast won't be pretty

Global Insight's Nov. 08 forecast

Fed expects long recession

Minnesota lost more than 10,000 jobs in Nov.

'Compare Minnesota' analyses 1990-2003 Thomas Friedman column 12-25-08 Eric Schubert column 12-26-08 Woods & Poole economic forecasts for Plains states 2006-2030 Post-meeting summary (to come)

 

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