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Can deployment of renewables be accelerated? By U.Bonne, 11 Sept. 2008.

Certainly not by distributing a few dollars extracted from the oil companies to individual taxpayers, so that they can go shopping. Rather, how about evaluating the merits of the following possibilities:   

-- MN-State issue an RFP to build several more wind-turbines, solar-PV stations or celullosic-to-fuel conversion plants[4] ] with those excess profit dollars, and/or   

-- MN-Sate agree to the 10% (164 MW) nuclear power plant output increase at Prarie Island, MN, requested by XcelEnergy (XE) by also agreeing with XE to:  

·         Add 2x of that amount of nuclear power (kW(avg)) increase in the form of wind or solar-PV in MN[3]   

·         Make 10-50% of its electric power available at production cost to users of plug-in electric vehicles, via special meters, after the Questar Natural Gas company model in Colorado, which agreed to make natural gas available at cost to natural gas-powered cars, and is allowing cars in CO to gas up at 63 cents worth of natural gas for a GGE (gallon of gasoline equivalent, or125,000 Btu) at public stations or at home for 1.12 $/GGE (which includes the electricity cost to run the compressor), see http://www.cngchat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1905

·         Allow funding for the additional renewable power (wind, solar, …) installation via new Excel Energy stock or bond issues 

      ·         Favor construction of these renewable energy systems with MN jobs  

-- Federal and Sate legislators find a way to stabilize the price of fuel at a minimum level of ~ 3.50 - 4 $/gal via adjustable taxation, to that the  

production or renewable energies does not lose momentum and is not exposed to the whims of global markets[1,2].

 

Some data: For an average household consumption of 800 kWh/month and MN's annual gasoline consuption of 2.8 billion gal, a 164  MW increase in average wind or solar power output would meet the needs of ~150,000 homes or ~290,000 electric vehicles. The latter includes the effect of improved overall electrical- vs. gasoline-system powered vehicles: 80 vs. 20%).

References

[1] Mike Bloomberg, and [2] Tom Friedman, in recent conversations with Charlie Rose, PBS TV (2008)

[3] Xcel Energy, the largest Minnesota power utility, is required to generate 30 percent of their power from renewable resources by 2020, see Laura French (Words into Action, Inc.), Star Tribune, "New Careers In The Wind"

[4] Note that a European Parliamentary Commitee voted on 11 Sep.'08 limit biomass to 60% of the renewable energy goals (10 percent biofuels by 2020), in an apparent move to direct the market more towards electric power from wind and solar, to meet also transportation needs. The Table 1 below illustrates that if wind-power can generate electricity at 7 cents/kWh, the cost advantage of driving elecric cars is clear.

 

Table 1. Car transportation cost vs. fuel type*. 

			Transportation Cost
		Equivalency	20-30 miles	1 mile
Energy Price		$/GGE	$	$
7     c/kWh el.power		2.46	0.46	0.018
4     $/gal gasoline		4.00	4.00	0.160
12   $/MBtu NG		1.44	0.86	0.035
4.50 $/kg H2		4.50	3.46	0.138
1.57 $/MBtu coal		0.19	0.29	0.011

* Assumed overall efficiencies for: 1) IC engine system: gasoline- 15%, nat.gas- 25%, coal-dust- 10%; electric motor + battery system: 80%

 

 

Past and Future Growth of Wind E-Power Generating Capacity By U.Bonne, 11 Sept. 2008.

With data from LLNL/EERE (for US as of 2006) and Wikipedia for global growth, the composite graph below shows past growth and extrapolated future growth -- if growth can contue for some years at the exponential rate of the past years, and if we do not first run out of "good" wind farm areas on land or water. Underlying assumptions: 30% average wind capacity factor and 600-m spacing between wind-turbines with 100-m diameter blades.

      Also shown are the equivalent levels of the total US energy use (~100 Quad Btu/year) in terms of electric power (~10,000 GWavg), as well as the additional, hypothetical electric power we'd need (~670 GWpeak or 200 GWavg, equivalent to the 2007 use of 141 billion gal gasoline/year) to charge up an equal number of cars and trucks presently on the US roads (250 million) after their conversion to "plug-in" electric cars, while benefiting from an increase in their fuel efficiency from 30% of the IC engine system to 80-90% of an electric motor and battery system. The 2.8 bilion gal gasoline/year used in Minnesota would only need an additional power of 4.2 GWavg. Note that to generate an average of 4.2 GWavg, the amount of additional installed wind-power capacity would be 4.2/0.3 = 14 GWpeak, beause of the typical 30% wind capacity factor.

       Note that the cost of wind power installations is ~ 1.5 $/Wpeak[1] (despite Pickens' wind farm costed at 2 $/W, see below) or 5 $/Wavg, resulting in electric power costsof ~ 4+/-2 c/kWh[1].

 

 

 

[1] Data for US growth from http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/pdfs/wiser_data_report_summary_2006.pdf and

[2] Global data from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:WorldWindPower2008.png

 

 

 

Zoltek Sails On

Carl Gutierrez, 05.16.08, 4:35 PM ET

Carbon-fiber maker Zoltek sailed on the back of strong fundamental and technical winds.

 

On the fundamental side, investors are realizing that a lot more carbon fiber will be sold in the future, particularly for wind energy, while a short squeeze accounts for the technical side. By late-afternoon trading Zoltek was up 16.2%, or $4.29, to $30.80. Since Wednesday's close of $23.33, the stock has gained 32.0% in value.

 

The fundamental drive is more than spontaneous spread of enlightenment across Wall Street. Michael Carboy of the boutique brokerage firm Signal Hill first looked to the company's second-quarter report released Tuesday, which showed a 35.9% increase in sales. Zoltek originally designed carbon fiber for car brakes. These days, the Bridgeton, Mo.-based firm sells the lightweight material to wind-power generators like Gamesa, which use it to make huge windmill blades. (See: "Subtle Shades of Green")

 

Carboy also noted that the U.S. Department of Energy released a study reporting that 20% of the energy needs in the United States could be satisfied by wind energy by 2030. Roughly the equivalent amount is provided by nuclear reactors.

 

The report noted that while there are numerous challenges in reaching that level, it would be achievable without the need of major new technological breakthroughs. Right now, wind energy only holds about 1% of the nation's electricity to its name. Still, the industry saw a 45% growth in production last year.

Energy icon T. Boone Pickens , the the world’s 368th richest person, has also thrown his name--and more importantly his money--behind the renewable source. (See: "Green Pickens") On Thursday investors learned that the 79-year-old maverick’s Mesa Power is set to spend $2.0 billion on 667 General Electric-made wind turbines, in the first phase of a four-stage effort to build the world’s largest wind farm in Texas.

 

Pickens said: “It’s clear that landowners and local officials understand the economic benefits that this renewable energy can bring not only to landowners who are involved with the project, but also in revitalizing an area that has struggled in recent years.”

 

Taken all together, Carboy said, investors are beginning to see wind energy is like to be a growth area, "or at least more than they thought, and as a result there’s probably going to be some short covering."

 

Traders who think a stock is going to fall can short it by borrowing shares and selling them. If they bet right, they can buy the stock back at a lower price, return the borrowed shares, and pocket the difference. When many short investors decide to throw in the towel on the strategy -- either because the stock has fallen sufficiently or because it hasn't fallen at all and they want to abandon their positions -- they can push the price higher as they look for shares to buy and return to the lenders.

 

Carboy noted that the company's former chief financial officer, Kevin Scott, resigned May 2, leaving short sellers waiting for another shoe to drop. "Right now though it doesn't look like that’s not going to happen," Carboy said.

 

May 15, 2008, 1:22PM, by Bloomberg News. 

 

Pickens' Panhandle wind project orders 667 turbines!

Mesa Power, controlled by billionaire investor Boone Pickens, ordered 667 wind turbines from General Electric Co. to begin a $10 billion wind-farm project in Texas that will be the nation's largest.

 

Delivery of the equipment will begin in mid-2010, Dallas-based Mesa said today in a statement. When completed in 2014, the Pampa Wind Project in northern Texas will be capable of producing 4,000 megawatts, the company said. That's enough power for about 1.2 million average U.S. homes.

 

Abundant wind, open land, federal tax credits and rising electricity prices have made Texas the largest U.S. producer of electricity from wind. Mesa's Pampa Wind Project would almost double that generating capacity. Royal Dutch Shell Plc has proposed a 3,000-megawatt wind project in the state.

 

``Such gigawatt-size projects are evidence of the strong interest in investing in wind power, to take advantage of vast, windy land in the U.S., Christine Real de Azua, a spokeswoman for the Washington-based American Wind Energy Association, said in an e-mail.

 

The wind turbines ordered from GE for the $2 billion first phase of the Pampa Wind Project will be capable of producing a total of 1,000 megawatts, Mesa said. A megawatt of wind-power is enough for 300 average U.S. homes, according to the association.

 

Mesa has yet to obtain rights-of-way for a $2 billion power line that will deliver the wind-farm's output to the Texas power grid, Pickens said an interview on CNBC. The farm will be constructed on leased property in Carson, Gray, Hemphill, Roberts and Wheeler counties, where landowners will receive annual royalties, Mesa said.

 

``We've had a great response to this project, Pickens said in the statement. ``Landowners and local officials understand the economic benefits.

 

Use of wind energy expected to grow dramatically

 

By H. JOSEF HEBERT

Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Two decades from now Americans could get as much electricity from windmills as from nuclear power plants, according to a government report that lays out a possible plan for wind energy growth.

 

The report, a collaboration between the Energy Department research labs and industry, concludes wind energy could generate 20 percent of the nation's electricity by 2030, about the same share now produced by nuclear reactors.

 

Such growth would pose a number of major challenges, but is achievable without the need of major new technological breakthroughs, said the report released Monday.

"The report indicates that we can do this nationally for less than half a cent per kilowatt hour if we have the vision," said Andrew Karsner, the Energy Department's assistant secretary for efficiency and renewable energy.

 

If achieved, it would be an astounding leap.

 

Wind energy today accounts for only about 1 percent of the nation's electricity, although the industry has been on a growth binge with a 45 percent jump in production last year.

 

To reach the 20 percent production level, wind turbines would have to produce 300,000 megawatts of power, compared to about 16,000 megawatts generated today. Such growth would envision more than 75,000 new wind turbines, many of them larger than those operating today. About 54,000 megawatts would be produced by turbines in offshore waters.

 

And it would require a major expansion of the electricity grid system to move power from high-wind areas to other parts of the country, the report said.

 

"The United States possesses abundant wind resources," said the report spearheaded by DOE's National Renewable Technology Laboratory in Golden, Colo., and a 20 percent share of electricity production "while ambitious, could be feasible."

 

But the report cautioned that its findings were not meant to predict that such growth would, in fact, be achieved, but only that it is technically possible. And it acknowledged "there are significant costs, challenges and impacts" associated with such rapid growth.

 

It would require improved turbine technology, "significant changes" and expansion of power line systems and a major expansion of markets for wind energy to accommodate an annual growth rate of 16,000 megawatts of electricity a year beginning in 2018, more than five times today's annual growth.

 

Randall Swisher, executive director of the American Wind Energy Association, said the report confirms that wind energy "is no longer a niche" in the power industry.

 

Dan Arvizu, director of the department's National Renewable Energy Laboratory, said that the 18-month study provides a "vision" of the kind of wind energy growth technically possible.

 

"First of all, it's doable, second of all it's desirable," said Arvizu at a news conference.

 

"It's time for America to change the way we think about wind power," said Bob Lukefahr of BP Alternative Energy North America. The oil company is a leading wind developer, said Lukefahr.

 

If wind energy's share of power production grows to 20 percent, natural gas consumption is expected to decline by 11 percent and coal consumption by 18 percent in 2030, said the report. As a result carbon dioxide emissions linked to global warming would be reduced by 825 million metric tons a year.

 

"This is the equivalent of taking 140 million cars off the road," said Swisher.

 

Mariah Power to begin shipping the Windspire on April 18th

By MB-BigB | April 11, 2008

According to Greentechmedia, Mariah Power will begin shipping its $3,995 vertical wind turbine, the Windspire, by the end of next week - April 18th. The Windspire, which is targeted for the residential market, is a vertical axis wind turbine that can produce about 1,800 kilowatt-hours per year in 11 mph hour winds. The company estimates that the turbine can generate about one third of the electricity needed for an average US single family home. The Windspire itself will cost $3,995, with installation expected to be about another $1,000. The company says that it currently has 1,200 preorders for the Windspire.

 

 

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More info at :DESC Wind

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November 23, 2007

Sweden Turns to a Promising Power Source, With Flaws

By MARK LANDLER

MALMO, Sweden — Steadying himself on the heaving foredeck of an inspection ship recently, his face flecked by spray, Arne Floderus pronounced it a good day for his new offshore wind farm.

 

A 30-mile-an-hour wind was twirling the fingerlike blades of a turbine 380 feet above his head. Around him, a field of turbines rotated in a synchronized ballet that, when fully connected to an electrical grid, would generate enough power to light 60,000 nearby houses.

 

“We’ve created a new landmark,” said Mr. Floderus, the project manager of the $280 million wind park, one of the world’s largest, which was built by the Swedish power company Vattenfall.

 

The park, in a shallow sound between Sweden and Denmark, testifies to the remarkable rise of wind energy — no longer a quirky alternative favored by environmentalists in Denmark and Germany, but a mainstream power source used in 26 nations, including the United States.

 

Yet Sweden’s gleaming wind park is entering service at a time when wind energy is coming under sharper scrutiny, not just from hostile neighbors, who complain that the towers are a blot on the landscape, but from energy experts who question its reliability as a source of power.

 

For starters, the wind does not blow all the time. When it does, it does not necessarily do so during periods of high demand for electricity. That makes wind a shaky replacement for more dependable, if polluting, energy sources like oil, coal and natural gas. Moreover, to capture the best breezes, wind farms are often built far from where the demand for electricity is highest. The power they generate must then be carried over long distances on high-voltage lines, which in Germany and other countries are strained and prone to breakdowns.

 

In the United States, one of the areas most suited for wind turbines is the central part of the country, stretching from Texas through the northern Great Plains — far from the coastal population centers that need the most electricity.

 

In Denmark, which pioneered wind energy in Europe, construction of wind farms has stagnated in recent years. The Danes export much of their wind-generated electricity to Norway and Sweden because it comes in unpredictable surges that often outstrip demand.

 

In 2003, Ireland put a moratorium on connecting wind farms to its electricity grid because of the strains that power surges were putting on the network; it has since begun connecting them again.

 

In the United States, proposals to build large wind parks in the Atlantic off Long Island and off Cape Cod, Mass., have run into stiff opposition from local residents on aesthetic grounds.

 

As wind energy has matured as an industry, its image has changed — from a clean, even elegant, alternative to fossil fuels to a renewable energy source with advantages and drawbacks, like any other.

 

“The environmental benefits of wind are not as great as its champions claim,” said Euan C. Blauvelt, research director of ABS Energy Research, an independent market research firm in London. “You’ve still got to have backup sources of power, like coal-fired plants.”

 

Mr. Blauvelt publishes an annual report on wind energy in which he discusses its flaws. People in the industry would accuse him of propagating myths, he said. Now, the criticism is more tempered.

 

“One of the big problems with wind is that people tend to get hyped up about it, very emotional,” Mr. Blauvelt said. “The difference is that the arguments are becoming more rational.”

 

None of this is to say that wind power has peaked. On the contrary, Mr. Blauvelt figures the industry is adding capacity at a five-year compound annual growth rate of 26.3 percent. That is faster than hydroelectric power in its early days and twice the recent growth rate of nuclear energy.

 

The United States, which is considered a pioneer in wind, added more generating capacity in 2006 than any year on record. With 11,575 megawatts, the United States is the world’s third largest wind country, after Germany and Spain, and it is adding more capacity than any other.

Among new countries with significant wind capacity are Britain, Canada, Italy, Japan and the Netherlands.

 

“What we’re seeing is a second wave of countries, which are starting to invest more heavily,” said Christian Kjaer, the chief executive of the European Wind Energy Association in Brussels.

 

He said wind energy would benefit from two parallel trends: rising oil prices and a global push to tax carbon-dioxide emissions. “It’s very good way of hedging against volatile oil prices and potentially volatile carbon costs,” Mr. Kjaer said.

 

In Germany, where 20,000 wind turbines generate 5 percent of the electricity, advocates say wind will be critical to meeting the government’s goal of generating at least 20 percent of all power from renewable methods by 2020. But the industry’s growth is slowing for a variety of reasons.

 

Germany is running out of places to put the turbines because of restrictions on the location and height of the devices. And rising raw material prices are making wind farms more expensive to build.

 

“Under the current circumstances, Germany’s climate protection targets are not achievable,” said Hermann Albers, the president of the German Wind Energy Association.

 

Open land is not a problem in the United States, but wind parks have faced resistance, particularly in scenic locales near the shore. A private developer, Cape Wind, wants to erect 130 turbines in Nantucket Sound, off Cape Cod. It has drawn protests from some well-connected locals, including the Kennedy family.

 

Cape Wind said it hoped to obtain all the necessary permits by next year, which would enable it to be up and running by 2011. “It’s been a long road,” said Mark Rodgers, a spokesman for the developer.

For a socially conscious society like Sweden, wind turbines exert a fashionable appeal.

 

Today, they account for less than 1 percent of Sweden’s electricity generation. But the government wants to increase annual wind power production to 10 terawatt hours, or 10 trillion watt hours, by 2015 from less than 1 terawatt hour now (the park off Malmo will produce a third of a terawatt hour).

 

Vattenfall hopes to develop an even larger off-shore park in the Baltic Sea, between Sweden and Germany. In all, the government has identified 49 sites that are suitable for wind parks.

 

Sweden has historically invested little in wind projects because it has two reliable sources of energy, nuclear and hydro, which each supply roughly half its power. And because hydro is renewable, Sweden already does well on the environmental balance sheet.

 

But these energy sources have their vulnerabilities: hydro, to low water levels; nuclear, to technical breakdowns. The Swedish government has also pledged not to build any new nuclear power plants.

 

“One of the key energy priorities for Sweden is to establish a third leg of energy production,” said Anders Nyberg, political adviser in the Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications.

 

Of course, Sweden does not need to build wind parks to get wind power. It could simply buy more surplus wind power from Denmark, which it uses, as does Norway, to pump underground water into elevated reservoirs. The water is later released during periods of peak electric demand to drive hydroelectric stations.

 

In this way, hydro acts as a form of storage for wind energy — addressing one of wind power’s biggest shortcomings. Sweden’s strength in hydro makes it a good candidate for greater development of wind power, according to analysts.

 

Sweden is subsidizing wind power through “green” certificates, which favor the use of renewable energy. The small extra cost is passed on to consumers.

While Swedes staunchly support wind energy, they are as susceptible to the not-in-my-backyard opposition as people elsewhere. For years, residents opposed the wind farm near Malmo, known as Lillgrund, particularly after the builders obtained permission to raise the height of the towers. But the campaign to block the project failed.

 

Still, Mr. Floderus said the process took far too long, and Vattenfall is urging the government to speed up the approvals next time.

 

As his inspection ship followed a zigzag course through a field of 48 turbines, Mr. Floderus pointed to Malmo’s two other landmarks, visible in the distance: Oresund Bridge, a 10-mile engineering marvel that connects Malmo with Copenhagen, and the Turning Torso, an eye-popping 54-story skyscraper designed by the Spanish architect Santiago Calatrava.

Soon, Mr. Floderus said, the whirling blades of the Lillgrund wind turbines would take their place alongside those landmarks as symbols of the modern age.

 

Mass Megawatts Wind Power, Inc., (OTC-Bulletin Board: MMGW) Reports Revenue for the First Time

Tuesday May 15, 8:18 am ET

 

WORCESTER, Mass., May 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Mass Megawatts Wind Power Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: MMGW - News) www.massmegawatts.com is pleased to announce that the company will be a revenue producing company for the first time in its corporate history. Revenue will be recognized in this fiscal quarter. Additionally, the company has other signed sales contracts that have not been completed. Revenue for accounting purposes can only be recognized when the sale of the product is produced and delivered.

 

Mass Megawatts has very little debt and only 3,722,982 shares issued and outstanding. The company has a market capitalization valued on May 14, 2007 at less than $2 million.

 

The first commercial product is the Multiaxis Turbosystem also known as MAT.

The MAT is a patented, wind energy conversion device that is capable of generating electricity at 2.5 cents per kilowatt-hour at an average wind speed of 16 miles per hour. This generation cost is 40% below traditional wind energy technologies, and is directly competitive with fossil fuel power plants such as coal and natural gas.

The MAT design is based on the deployment of many small individual blades which are mounted vertically on shafts that drive generators located at the base of the system. The MAT design has received a PE stamp, certifying that the structure can withstand 120 mph winds, as well as, level 4 earthquakes.

 

The MAT structure provides several key advantages over traditional wind energy designs. This includes a reduction in capital, operational, and maintenance costs, along with, the ability to operate profitably in lower wind speed locations. In the United States alone, suitable MAT locations currently exist to potentially supply 20 percent of the nation's electricity.

 

The company reports that it has limited the technology and operational risks for it's customers by providing a warranty on the performance for each MAT sold. The level of electricity generated by a MAT, based upon wind-speed, is guaranteed by the company. In addition, favorable accelerated depreciation rules can, in some cases, create a positive cash flow situation in the first year of operation.

 

Charlton Project Video Click here to see our prototype in Charlton, MA (3.5 Mb). Requires QuickTime. No birds killed since it began operating in October 2001     Blandford Project In this photo, a 72 foot wind energy system completed in the Spring of 2005 is located in Blandford , Massachusetts. More Blandford project photos

Mass Megawatts Wind Power, Inc. (OTCBB: MMGW) is a leader in the development of low-cost, wind energy production systems. The patented, Multi-Axis Turbosystem (MAT) is capable of generating electricity at 2.5 cents per kilowatt-hour at an average wind speed of 15.5 miles per hour. This generation cost is 40% below traditional wind turbine technologies, and is directly competitive with fossil fuel power plants such as coal and natural gas.

 

For complete comparison with other wind technologies click   here

 

Mass Megawatts Wind Power, Inc. is in the business of developing, building, and operating state-of-the-art wind energy power plants. Mass Megawatts has exclusive patent rights for over eleven percent of the world for building wind farms that produce energy at a lower cost than any other wind energy technology. In fact, the cost of clean Mass Megawatts electricity is projected to be in the same range as fossil fuels - currently the cheapest source of electricity - in a world market generating $650 billion a year. The patented "Multi-Axis Turbosystem" or MAT wind farm production system is expected to generate power that can be sold profitably at less than 2.5¢ per kWh. Mass Megawatts has identified enough high-wind locations in its territory to potentially supply better than fifteen percent of the territory's electricity.

 

The MAT design received a PE stamp , certifying that the structure can withstand 120 mile per hour winds, and level four earthquakes. Early prototypes have also produced data indicating that operating costs will be much less than other wind energy systems due to a design that reduces vibration, parts costs, and maintenance time.

 

With today's energy price assumptions, the Mass Megawatts venture would breakeven in two years for the best wind sites with clean energy tax credits and green energy market pricing.

 

 

Mass Megawatts on Target to Reach Army Project Timeline Goals

Monday August 4, 7:52 am ET

 

WORCESTER, Mass., Aug. 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- In a clarification of the recent press release dated July 30, 2008, Mass Megawatts Wind Power, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: MMGW - News) plans to report higher and record breaking revenue at the end of the second quarter October 2008 as it completes the recently announced army project in late August or early September 2008. The last day of the second fiscal quarter for the year ending April 30, 2009 is on October 31, 2008.

 

Production of the components related to the 50-kilowatt wind power project slated to be constructed at U.S. Army Intelligence Headquarters located in Fort Huachuca, Arizona began this past spring in June 2008. The project is part of the Army's ongoing efforts to expand into renewable energy. The U.S. Army and Fort Huachuca are highly aggressive in their efforts to pursue the use of renewable energy. This issue is a vital part of national and world security.

 

A substantial number of inquiries for low cost clean power are driving the demand for the Company's wind power plants. After the 50kW army project, the company plans to establish an on going sales and manufacturing infrastructure to take advantage of the demand.