• Abstract: The group will brainstorm and apply Future Studies training to issues and implications.

February 23, 2008

Society/Management Futures SIG

Title: "The Niche for Small Residual Biomass Plants"

Guest Speaker: Ulrich Bonne, Ph.D., Chemical Physicist, Consultant and CTO of MinneFuel, LLC/p>

Moderator: David Keenan/p>

Abstract: Small biomass plants represent an opportunity to profitably make and operate a network of small plants to convert “small” sources of residual biomass from farm and forestry operations into renewable fuel or fertilizers. The presentation will detail availability of residual biomass, and why small plants, producing 10-30 gallons per hour (gal/h), can compete with large plants with outputs of 375-3750 gal/h (30-300 million gal/year) or the >300 million gal/y “big oil" producers, despite traditional scaling laws.

PB-08-Futurists-14-April.pdf Updated 14Apr08

March 1, 2008

Future Studies & Special Presentations

Title: Managing Personal Change

MNF Discussion Leader Brian K Toren

Moderator: David Keenan

Abstract: Everybody encounters change that affects their personal and/or professional life. This change can be for the good or the bad, ranging from a death in the family, job loss, home loss to winning the lottery. We deal with change in different ways and spans of time. The transition  depends on the severity and source of the change; whatever the case, individuals go through a similar transition. This transition has several stages to pass through before the individual can move on. These are:

> The triggering event

> Grief

> Denial

> Acceptance of need to move on

> Insight - using creativity to address the change response

This SIG will guide the participant through a past, present or expected future transition and ask how he/she could have or can do better. Each person attendee will fill out a form that will help in the transition. 

March 8, 2008

Economic and Investment Futures

Title: "Sovereign Wealth Funds: Threat or Boon to U.S. Economic and Political Independence?"

MNF Speaker: Dick Saunders

Abstract: More than 40 sovereign wealth funds with bank balances exceeding $1.5 trillion have been organized by both democratic nations and  conservative kingdoms to invest trade surpluses in U.S. and other foreign companies, or to build infrastructure in the home country. Over time, will these unregulated funds be used to buy control of geopolitically sensitive or critical U.S. resources, and eventually represent a threat to U.S political security? Or will such foreign purchases be accepted as timely examples of an increasingly interdependent world of high finance?

March 15, 2008

Technology Futures SIG

Title: "Cornucopia of Technology Futures"

MNF Discussion Leader: Hank Lederer/p>

Abstract: A wide array of future technology items will be reviewed and discussed.  Bring your ideas, items, articles, weblinks from readings, activities, internet searches, etc on coming & potential technological changes and breakthroughs.  Prepare a 2-3 minute pitch.

To be added:

Lost Technology Withers Leadership, Growth, and Vitality.doc 

March 22, 2008

Peace SIG

Title:The Middle East Peace Process - Is It Dead?

MNF Speaker: Roger Rydberg

Moderator: Dick Saunders

Abstract: The outlook for the troubled Israel/Palestine peace process. A video "Life in Occupied Palestine" captures extensiveness of Israeli encroachment on Palestinian land and everyday lives. What are possible long-range solutions to long-term peace in the region? What is the state of current Bush administration initiatives to press for negotiations? What positions have 2008 U.S. presidential candidates taken?

References :Iraq War - Israel Link

Peace Talks Going Nowhere

McCain Obama Face Off On Israel

Bush's Peace Efforts

The Real Story Yet To Come

Middle East History

Jimmy Carter - Middle East Analysis

A Realistic Peace Plan

Map Of Israel

March 29, 2008

Management, Society and Education SIG

Title: "Community Boxing Program"

Guest Speaker: A.J. Moon

Moderator: David Keenan

Abstract: Boxing As A Discipline

April 5, 2008

Future Studies & Special Presentations

Title: "Energy Conservation Experiments; Alternative Energy Examples In This Area"

Guest Speaker: Dale Stenseth

Moderator: David Keenan

Abstract: Starting with the big picture, the US Energy Flows for 2002 and 2006 are compared and contrasted.  Energy flow forecasts through 2030 are included.  A few home conservation experiments over a 30 year period are described, some with unexpected, or unintended consequences.  Examples of local alternative energy sources will be described, including successes and failures.  Conclusion will be an open discussion of SWOT, (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) for various energy sources.

Reference Links:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeoref_tab.html    US Energy Flow Forecast to 2030

http://www.stenseth.org/adventure/energy.html    Working note space and pictures.

April 12, 2008

Econ Futures SIG

Title:"Securing a Clean Energy Future: The Case for Action"

Video Summary of Governors' Conference Proceedings, Jan. 2008

Speakers: Thomas L. Friedman, author and columnist for The New York Times)

Jeffrey R. Immelt (Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, General Electric Company)

Discussion Leader: Roger Rydberg

Ref. Plenary Friedman Video, Plenary Immelt Video,Conference Agenda

April 19, 2008

Society, Management and Education SIG

Title: "How Does Technology Evolve?"

Video of Kevin Kelly: "How Does Technology Evolve?:

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/19 24 minutes

http://www.poptech.org/popc asts/PopCasts.aspx?viewcastid=37 24 minutes

THE TECHNIUM AND THE 7TH KINGDOM OF LIFE essay

http://www.edge.org/documents/archive/ edge217.html 

Moderator: David Keenan

Kevin Kelly has been publisher of the Whole Earth Review, executive editor at WIRED, founder of visionary nonprofits, and writer on biology and business and "cool tools." 

April 26, 2008

Technology SIG 

Title: "Printing Nanoparticles"

Speaker: Mike Renn, PhD, Optomec

Moderator: Hank Lederer/Dave Keenan

Abstract: 3D printers may be the next "Big Thing." Is "Just-In-Place-Manufacturing" soon to be in our future.

May 3, 2008

Future Studies & Special Presentations

Title: Biometric Identification 

Speaker: David Keenan 

Abstract: This will provide background regarding the state of biometric technologies for identification.   

We will discuss the materials in preparation for the June 7 workshop.

Presentation:Biometric Identification.ppt

May 10, 2008

Econ Futures SIG

Title:<"Will World Credit Crisis Get Worse?"

Discussion Leaders: Dick Saunders and Roger Rydberg

Abstract: The world credit crisis is now estimated at $300 trillion, and may be closer to $700 trillion when credit default swaps are included. How and when do we stop the waterfall that has nearly drowned world derivative trading markets -- and created huge losses for value investors -- for six months? Four of the world's leading economists, investors and regulators give us some hints./p>

Background:

Niagara Falls

Book or Video: Stiglitz on the Economy

George Soros Interview with Reuters - April 3

Warren Buffet's Annual Message to Shareholders - May 3

Citigroup, AIG, GM Rescap Suffer Heavy 1Q Losses

 Bonds Ready To Crack?

NY Times - Triple-A Failure of Regulation

$200 Oil Coming?/p>

May 17, 2008

Technology SIG

Title: "Pursuit of the 'God' Particle"

Discussion Co-leaders: Brian Toren and Dick Saunders

Abstract: The world's largest particle accelerator, under construction by CERN in Switzerland/France, will soon open to allow physicists to search for the long-sought Higgs Boson, or "God" particle, because it would represent the smallest discernable energy force in the universe.

Background Sources:

(March 2008)national geographic

                                   Cern org

                                   www.en/wikipedia.org/

                                   http://www.wired.com/science/di scoveries/news/2002/08/54507

May 24, 2008

Education, Management, and Society SIG

Title: "Our Disinformation Society -- Where Is it Leading Us?"

Discussion Leader: Jack Carter

Video Producer and Director: George Paulos

Presentation: Disinformation Society.ppt Post Presentation Recap: Disinformation Society Recap.doc

Abstract: What is disinformation? How do we identify it from "true information"? Governments have used it negatively for years to sway public opinion in favor of war, and positively to rally public opinion in times of crisis. Politicians use it daily to attempt to swing public sentiment to their side. So do corporations, through their lobbyists, newspaper, radio and TV news and opinion columns. What role does the media play--as early warning detectors, or flag-waving supporters--as these causes evolve? How do we develop the critical reading and listening skills to minimize errant decisions in our personal lives, businesses and society at large?

And how do Joseph Campbell's widely accepted myth theories of the mid-1990s come into play in formulating company team-building strategies in the super-competitive world of the next decade?

May 31, 2008

Peace Futures SIG

Title:<"Where Ends the Chase for Bin Laden?"

Discussion Leaders: Dick Saunders and Roger Rydberg

Guest Speaker: Army Specialist Roderick Rotzien

Abstract: The Taliban have revived their attacks on southeast Afghanistan. Pakistan is believed to be continuing to harbor Bin Laden. The two Pakistani coalition leaders elected to replace former President Musharraf have split over restoration of banned supreme court justices. Meanwhile, the U.S.-backed Karzai government appears to have been unable to establish control. What outcomes -- military or diplomatic -- might be feasible as the Afghan war enters its seventh year?

Specialist Rotzien will tell stories about his first-hand encounters with Baghdad street insurgents from behind the wheel of an Abrams tank during two tours of duty in Iraq.

Background:

Latest Analysis of U.S. Search Problems:www.nytimes.com 6-30-08

wikipedia - Bin_Laden

Lost At Tora Bora

Pakistan Peace Issues

Musharraf and Bin Laden

Afghan Issues

Taliban Regaining Hold

The Status of the Military

War Report Afghanistan

June 7, 2008

Future Studies & Special Presentations

Title: "Biometric Identification for US Citizens, Visitors and Guests - A Systems Analysis Workshop"

Speaker: Bill Peter

Moderator: Dave Keenan

Abstract: Comprehensive System Analysis Methods

As we develop possible and likely scenarios for the future, it is important that we broadly analyze the key variables and the potential consequences and possible unintended consequences. "Ethanol from corn" is a recent major mistake for our society because such a comprehensive systems analysis was not undertaken by  Congress. And the next alternative energy source -- cellulosic ethanol -- looks worse.

Positive Personal Identification.ppt 

June  14, 2008

Econ Futures SIG

Title:"Economics For A Crowded Planet"

Econ For A Crowded Planet - Synopsis

Amazon The Book

Also:

http://www.sachs.earth.columb ia.edu/commonwealth/index.php

Review of a new book by Prof. Jeffrey Sachs

Discussion Leaders: Ulrich Bonne and Roger Rydberg

 Economist Jeffrey Sachs says that the world's population, climate change, poverty and resource use are all closely intertwined. In his book Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet, Sachs argues that humanity must address global problems on a global scale. "One-sixth of the world remains trapped in extreme poverty unrelieved by global economic growth," Sachs writes. "The poverty trap poses tragic hardships for the poor and great risks for the rest of the world." 

Sachs asserts that solutions are readily at hand. He focuses on four challenges: heading off global warming and environmental destruction; stabilizing the world's population; ending extreme poverty, and breaking the political logjams that hinder global cooperation on these issues.  Sachs's entire agenda would cost less than 3% of the world's annual income. He notes that a mere two days' worth of Pentagon spending would fund a comprehensive antimalaria program for Africa, saving countless lives. Forthright government action is the key to avoiding catastrophe, the author contends, not the unilateral, militarized approach to international problems practiced by the current administration.

See: Global American Technology Alliance s for Sachs"s suggestions for our next president:

1.  end the Iraq war because money spent there can be better spent elsewhere;

2.  end the Bush tax cuts of 2003;

3.  invest more heavily in sustainable energy initiatives;

4.  dispatch a climate envoy to the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China)

5.  stop 1/3 of our corn crop going to produce fuel (ethanol);

6.  sign the international convention on biodiversity;

7.  invite African and Middle East leaders to participate in the drylands initiative to address hunger and water shortages;

8.  reestablish the United Nations Population Fund;

9.  reinstitute the UN's Millennium Development goals to get US out of last place in donating only .16% of our income to world needs;

10. create a U.S. cabinet-level department for international sustainable development

Professor Jeffrey Sachs

Jeffrey D. Sachs is the Director of The Earth Institute, Quetelet Professor of Sustainable Development, and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University. From 2002 to 2006 he was also Director of the UN Millennium Project and Special Advisor to United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan on the Millennium Development Goals to reduce extreme poverty, disease and hunger by 2015. Sachs is also President and Co-Founder of Millennium Promise Alliance, a non-profit organization aimed at ending extreme global poverty.

For additional but supportive views, see: Earth The Sequel by Fred Krupp

Or See: World Population Situation 

June 21, 2008

Technology SIG

Title: "Nuclear Power's Downside: Waste Storage Capacity Limited; Yucca Mountain a Political Football"

Discussion Leaders: Brian Toren and Dick Saunders

Abstract: Nuclear power construction in the U.S. stopped at 104 in 1970 with the Three-Miile Island plant's partial meltdown. And, for legal and NIMBY reasons, undersized Yucca Mountain in Nevada may never open as the nation's permanent nuclear waste depository. Yet, the U.S. government is offering the moribund nuclear industry $18 billion in incentives to restart production of new or improved reactor designs. How will we be able to dispose safely of old and new spent fuel rods after on-site storage capacity is reached in Minnesota and elsewhere?

June 28, 2008

Education, Management and Society SIG

Title:  "Is America Taking  Adequate Steps to Eliminate Voter Fraud in Future Elections?"

Discussion Leader: David Keenan (for Hank Lederer)

Moderator:

Abstract:Video "UNCOUNTED" is an explosive new documentary that shows how the election fraud that changed the outcome of the 2004 election led to even greater fraud in 2006 - and now looms as an unbridled threat to the outcome of the 2008 election. This controversial feature length film by Emmy award-winning director David Earnhardt examines in factual, logical, and yet startling terms how easy it is to change election outcomes and undermine election integrity across the U.S. Noted computer programmers, statisticians, journalists, and experienced election officials provide the irrefutable proof.

Take-home suggestions for improving the system:

1. Near-term: Volunteer as election judge and register by July 1 for the next elections

2. Long term: Save paper, voter-labor, vote-counting labor, and vote counting system cost by adapting the existing/safe IRS tax handling system for voting for state and federal office.

Voter Fraud Issues 

Presentation:MNF Election and Voting Concerns.ppt

July 5, 2008

 Special Interest Group Discussion

Title: "Suggestions for Minnesota's Energy Future"   PB-08-Futurists-7-Jul.pdf

Lead Speakers: Ulrich Bonne, David Grider, Brian Toren and Dick Saunders

Moderator: Dick Saunders 

US Oil Production Trends

Abstract:

A Minneapolis/St.Paul StarTribune "Counterpoint" article by U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar entitled "The Energy Crisis: Only Bold Steps Will Help," (P. 19, May 17, 2008) did not focus on specifics but reminded us to not expect one "silver bullet" but rather a "silver shot" to achieve clean, renewable, sustainable, secure and "independent" energy sources free of fossil fuels. The SIG speakers seek ideas from Minnesota Futurists and viewers showing, for example:

• How does the retail price of gasoline depend on each link in the supply chain from well to pump. What measures and incentives, if any, should be incorporated into a clean energy bill while simultaneously respecting the laws of supply and demand? Does speculatiion on oil in the futures market influence the retail price -- and if so, how could that be avoided? 
• What criteria and measurements can and should be applied to justify specific gov. energy subsidies,if any, to bridge the time period between today's economic non-viability of some energy sources and projected future viability, sustainability and energy independence?
• How would the Minnesota economy benefit if it produced locally 1 billion gallons of gasoline per year (of the total 2.8 billion gals. used in 2007), rather than relying solely on imports?
• What alternative fuels could efficiently be substituted for each of its present main users?
• What savings could be achieved if all new passenger vehicles sold in Minnesota achieved an EPA mileage rating of >30 (or even >40) miles/gallon after allowing manufacturers to meet higher CAFE standards? Will hybrid vehicles using electric or hydrogen power help? Is ethanol's future in jeopardy, if the water use for its production cannot be reduced?
• Should new homes be required to feature 1) alternative sources such as solar water heaters and backyard wind turbines, and             & nbsp; 2) insulation standards now required for (electric) heat pump homes?
• Should subsidies be used (and if so, how large) to encourage foresters and farmers to install residual biomass conversion systems to make fuels or fertilizers?
• What incentives might help spur reductions in paper consumption (such as for advertising billboards, flyers, posters, and other business mail, telephone books, and newsprint)
• Would increased public transportation services such as high-speed buses and more light rail lines reduce gasoline and diesel fuel consumption?
• What can we learn from the nuclear contribution to electricity in France? How far into the future is nuclear fusion?
• Can we learn from or adapt the proactive (banking on projected future cost reductions) renewable energy subsidies Germany provides for solar, wind and biomass?
• Other ideas? 
• More Info:
• State Policy Impact On Solar

We aim to come up with a balanced approach – but also view that as just one of the criteria. Actually, the “right thing” for MN may not be viewed as “balanced” at all, if we think that to achieve “survival” and a better std. of living in MN 10-50 years from now, we need to make some sacrifices today.

Other criteria we should also consider is whether we adequately address:

• The economic impact of any mandated conservation and subsidy/incentive measures

   The MN energy-independence impact of any mandated conservation and subsidy/incentive measures

•  

• The environmental impact of any mandated conservation and subsidy/incentive measures

   

• Are any mandated conservation and subsidy/incentive measures in or out of line with federal or other states’ measures?

   

• History lessons: Measures MN should have taken some time back. Will we repeat our past mistakes? 

  Solar home tax incentives by state

July 12, 2008

Economic SIG

Title: "Possible Futures for Minnesota Air Service"

Panelists: Jeff Hamiel, executive director, Metropolitan Airports Commission (MAC), and Jim Spensley, president of the South Metro Airport Action Council (SMAAC), the oldest citizen advocacy group for quieter neighborhoods around Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP).

 Since March, soaring fuel prices, a slumping economy and excess capacity have forced five U.S. airline bankruptcies or service cessations. More are forecast by industry experts for 2009 if high fuel prices continue. Since their merger agreement this spring, Northwest and Delta have each announced plans to reduce service nationwide this fall. Will this reduction result in any national discount carriers entering the Minnesota market? How will regional carriers adjust? And how much more will ticket prices have to rise?

Moderator: Dick Saunders

Ref. Airlines - Sunset Industry?

Airline News

Second Go-around Problem at JFK in 8 Days: http://mail.google.com/mail/#inbox/11b155 4475445fc1

Following are the "odds" Jim Spensley of SMAAC associated with the three merger scenarios he testified about in the MN House Commerce Committee Hearings in Spring 2008:

 5 in 10 that most old NWA jobs will be cut or re-located to right-to-work states, and a Delta/NWA flight reduction of 60% to 70% by landed weight will occur at MSP within 15 to 18 months after the merger.

4 in 10 that MSP continues as a major hub because of MAC incentives (more revenue-sharing, Lindbergh expansion, gate policy changes, etc.) that help Delta consolidate connecting services, increasing the hubbing factor compared to 2007 and slow if not stop work at Humphrey.  No new airlines will come here.

1 in 10 that that hub operations are continued but reduced during a continuing economic downturn.  Delta cash may make the decline more gradual, but the prospect is down before up. The major airlines could all fall into bankruptcy again.  This time, Delta headquarters will be in Georgia with the same guy in charge (Richard Anderson) who bailed out here.