Minnesota Futurists

 

Past Meetings July - December 2009

Page history last edited by Dale Stenseth 6 days ago

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July 11, 2009

Topic:  "Selected 2007 World Future Society SIG Presentations--Part 3"  

Speaker: David Grider

Moderator: David Keenan

Abstract: Review of Jim Mathews and Junkiewicz talks

Presentation Notes: Jim Mathews WFS07 Understanding Tech Lifecycles.pdf

Presentation Notes:  judkiewicz WFS07 Crisis Management.ppt  Not covered in this session.  to be reviewed in a future session.

 

July 18, 2009

Topic: "A Potpourri of Forthcoming Futures"

Participants: Various members

Moderators: Hank Lederer and Brian Toren

Abstract: A roundtable of pending breakthroughs presented by interested members on any of our standard monthly discussion categories: economics, markets, management, technology, social change, education, peace and diplomacy. Bring a 10-minute backgounder and forecast on your topic's implications for the future.

 

July 25, 2009

Topic: "Future Home"

Speaker: David Keenan

Moderator:

Abstract: A review of several articles including "5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use",  Clatyon Homes' i-House, and several home appliances.

Presentation: HO Future Home.ppt  and additional links  HO Future Home additional links.ppt

 

July 29. 2009  Board Meeting 6 pm - 8:30 pm, Location - Knights of Columbus Hall, Bloomington, MN (our regular Saturday location)

 

August 1, 2009

Topic:  Futures Presentation

Part I Title: The Changing Nature of Change

Overview: How we view and understand the future(s) is changing. Emerging perspectives regarding the nature of change are altering the field of futures research and challenging established futures methodologies. This SIG will examine classical and emerging perspectives of change and how they relate to the futures field. The SIG will review long established concepts of dualism, cycles, and evolutionary change and contrast them with emerging concepts of complexity, chaos, and complex adaptive systems.

Part II: Methodology Section: Brainstorming

Overview: This month the Futures SIG will review "brainstorming" as a long-established futures methodology. This engaging technique will be applied in a practical exercise to address the future(s) of a popular electronic device.

Speaker: George Kubik

Moderator:

 

August 8, 2009

Topic: " Future Economy: A  V or W Recovery?"

Speaker: Dick Saunders

Moderator: Roger Rydberg

Abstract: Has the Great Recession ended, or are we in for another downturn before the worst is over? Some analysts say the bottom has been reached. Others, mostly economists, assert the current stock market recovery cannot last in the face of critical weaknesses in the world and national economy. Who is right?

References:

Sonders Update on Economic Outlook

ISI Sees Greener Pastures

Barclays Calls Recession Over

The Case for the W

Economists Lead the Way to Calamity

In a vote taken at the close of the presentation. 3 concurred that the 20-month recession has shown enough green shoots have grown into a legitimate recovery. 3 others thought the economy would likely slip back into a decline later in 2010. 2 declared "don't know."

 

August 22, 2009

Topic: "The Role of Community College Present and Future"

Speaker: Lornah Sherman

Moderator:  David Keenan

Abstract: The community college plays an important role in providing certificates, diplomas, and associates degrees to fill jobs in the middle labor market. Middle-skill jobs are those requiring some training and/or education beyond high school, but less than a four year degree, yet will pay family supporting wages.

  1. Career Fields, Cluster and Pathways

 2. Community School's Strategy, Planning and Accountability

 3. 2020 Forecast: Creating the Future of Learning

Presentation:  HO Role of the Community College.ppt

References:  Minnneapolis Commmunity and Technical College Office of Strategy Planning and Accountability http://accountability.minneapolis.edu/strategicplanning

Transforming America's Community College: A Federal Policy Proposal to Expand Opportunity and Promote Economic Prosperity 

http://www.afscmeinfocenter.org/2009/05/transforming-americas-community-colleges-a-federal-policy-proposal-to-expand-opportunity-and-promote.htm

 

August 29, 2009

Topic: "Future Changes in U. S. Defense Policy"

Speakers: Roger Rydberg and Dick Saunders

Abstract:  In light of the country's new "Smart Power" doctrine balancing military and diplomatic initiatives for peace, high federal deficits continuing in next 10 years, and early signs of declining world geopolitical strength, how are defense budgets faring? Future Tools used: horizon scanning, scenario choices.

Ref.

Defense Budget.ppt

Pentagon Budget 2010

Pentagon Seeks Record Level in 2009 Budget

Pentagon Budget Cuts Graphics

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/7a/U.S._Federal_Spending_-_FY_2007.png

US Defense Budget Wiki Pages

 

September 5, 2009

Topic: Multiple Views of the Future

Presenter: George Kubik, PhD

Abstract: Futures SIG Presentation

Part I - Overview: This second segment of the MNF Futures SIG presentation will address multiple ways of viewing and understanding the future. The presentation will examine leading frameworks that influence how we address the nature of change and alternate futures. Specifically, the presentation will review Newtonian and quantum models of change; theories of cyclical, wave, and ‘S-curve’ relationships; and, (time permitting) multiple perspectives of systems thinking concerning change and the future.

 

Part II - Methodology: This month the Futures SIG will review “trend extrapolation” as one of the oldest futures methodologies. This critical futures methodology will be applied in a practical exercise.

 

Mentioned book reference. "Diffusion of Innovation" Everett M. Rogers www.amazon.com/Diffusion-Innovations-5th-Everett-Rogers/dp/0743222091

 

September 12, 2009

Topic:" 50 New Ideas the World Needs Now"

Speakers: Brian Toren, Hank Lederer

Moderator: Hank Lederer

Abstract: Briefly discuss and get comments (some may be controversial) on several new future possibilities presented in Popular Science and Popular Mechanics magazines. These range from eye implants to nuclear power to genetically modified organisms (GMOs) e.g. plants for food.

25 Ideas for Future Tech sans BGrnd.pdf

 

September 19, 2009

Topic: "Does State Government Have Any Role in Stimulating Growth During Recessions?"

Speaker: Phil Krinkie, President, Taxpayers League of Minnesota

Moderator: Dick Saunders

Abstract: coming soon

Biographical Sketch:

 Prior to joining the Taxpayers League in February 2007, Phil served 16 years in the Minnesota State Legislature and held positions as the chairman of the State Government Finance, Capital Investment and Taxes committees. Perhaps best known as Minnesota's "Dr. No" – for his steadfast opposition to wasteful government spending and tax increases that fueled government growth – Phil was the legislature's preeminent fiscal conservative.

In addition to Phil's political work, he is a small business owner. For 25 years he has operated The Snelling Company, a heating and air conditioning business in the Twin Cities. Until his death in 2001, former Minnesota Futurist Woody Woodward served briefly as an alternative energy consultant to Mr. Krinkie.

 

September 26, 2009

Topic: "Auto and Newspaper Industry Futures"

Speaker: Bill Peter

Moderator:

Abstract: Bill will share his findings on historical trends in these two industries and possible alternative future scenarios for each. These two market segments have several historical similarities which will be reviewed, and the group will develop creative alternative scenarios for successful future business models.

 

October 3, 2009

Title: Innovative Systems Views of the Future

Presenter: George Kubik, PhD

Abstract:

Part I - Overview: This third segment of the MNF Futures SIG series addresses an emerging method for forecasting the future. The presentation will examine and compare multiple systems views of causality as the basis for understanding and addressing alternative futures. Specifically, the presentation will review three systems views of the future: traditional/mechanistic, emergent/self-organizing, and intentional.

 

Part II - Methodology: This month the Futures SIG will review a new futures methodology based on multiple understandings of causality. This futures methodology will be applied in a practical exercise.

 

October 10, 2009

Econonic / Market Futures SIG

Topic: "Cloud Computing Futures"

Guest Speaker: Larry Gottschalk

Moderator: Roger Rydberg

Abstract: Is Cloud Computing a Myth or Reality? What are some emerging applications?

Cloud Computing presentation 2009 Oct 9.ppt

Larry's bio Cloud Computing - Larry Gottschalk

Forecast For Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing At ATT

Google On A Cloud

IBM Moving Into Cloud Computing

Saving IT Dollars - Netbooks and Cloud Computing

Ten Top Strategies For 2009

Cloud data faces security scrutiny

Cloud-collision-operational-models-and-cultural-change/

IDC’s first forecast of IT cloud services

Cloud_computing_market_to_reach_$44b_in_revenue_by_2013

WSJ And Cloud Computing

Analysts predict feds could save big money with cloud computing

 

October 17, 2009

Societal, Management, Education Futures SIG

Topic:  "Where Does Wisdom Come From?"

Speaker: Bill Peter

Abstract: Bill will conduct a workshop very successfuly facilitated with many other groups. The title question will be explored in a way that participants always find to be very personally revealing to the rational as well as the emotional parts of their brains. The group will then develop several alternative future scenarios about the sources of wisdom in the future.

 

A few things to ponder:

1. The four stages of learning :

Unconscious   Incompetence  (when you don’t know what you don’t know)

Conscious   Incompetence

Conscious  Competence

Unconscious   Competence  (when you are competent without thinking about it)

 

2. The levels of competence :

Lowest level   Facts

Information

Intelligence

Highest level    Wisdom

 

The human use of human beings is to focus on WISDOM, which has two components: “Human-to-Human Relationships” and “Imagination”.

3. Prior to the workshop, write down the 20 most significant events (highs or lows) of your life from childhood to today and bring the list. You will be invited to participate in an exercise utilizing these 20 events in a very useful way to tap into your personal internal source of WISDOM.

 

4. If you want to explore further before the workshop, go to right hand side of the Home Page of my web site ( www.2020and2035.com ), and watch the 30 minute TV Show on the subject, “Where Does Wisdom Come From?”

 

October 24, 2009

Technology Futures SIG

Topic:  "H20 --  Uncertain Resource"

Co-Speakers and Moderators: Hank Lederer, Brian Toren

Abstract: "Water is the lifeblood of earth. It is the livelihood of every living thing. It is what binds us together. Without water, we shall perish from the earth:" Gustavus Adolphus College Nobel Conference 45 Preview

This water:

  • Must sustain six plus billion people, plus two billion increase over next 15 years
  • Must also sustain all ecosystems and every other living thing
  • Some water uses are nonrenewable and nonsustainable.
  • Like oil water is following a peak-oil-type curve
  • There is a limit.

Presentation 2009 Nobel Conference - H2O Uncertain Resource

For more knowledge, go to:

http://gustavus.edu/events/nobelconference/2009/periscope-up.php

 

October 31, 2009

Peace SIG

Topic: "Future of Iran And Peace In The Middle East"

Speaker: Jay Shahidi

Moderator: Roger Rydberg

“Jay” Shahidi is a human rights activist and small business owner who lives in Minnetonka, MN. He was born in Tehran, Iran under the regime of the last Shah, and came to the U.S. in 1968 after attending college in U.K. for two years. While majoring in economics and political science at Minnesota State University, Mankato, he became a devout peace activist as well as the student body president. Ever since then, he has worked as a citizen lobbyist in the areas of war prevention, refugee rights, disarmament, environmental protection, population stabilization, public education,  economic development and elimination of poverty. He has written numerous articles on these issues Some of his social commentaries are available at the websites of the Twin Cities Daily Planet, under “film” and “commentary“,  Star Tribune and Daily Telegraph in U.K.

In his business activities, Jay has formed and manages Decorative Construction, Inc. which provides environmentally healthy building renovation practices;  M.J. Shahidi Business Consltg. Co., which offers business consulting and advocacy services for small business and non-profit groups, and, My Retirement House, Inc. which operates a house for older people with disabilities. As a consultant, he has formed over three dozen business ventures for clients and is an ardent proponent of fair (real free) trade.

Abstract: Review Iran Security Concerns

Ref: Iran And Nuclear Policy Oct 2009

Also see book "The Last Great Revolution: Turmoil and Transformation in Iran" Robin Wright, Feb 2001, ISBN 0-375-40639-5 -

 http://www.amazon.com/Last-Great-Revolution-Turmoil-Transformation/dp/0375706305

 

November 5, 2009

Thursday - MNF Board Meeting

- Knights of Columbus Hall, Bloomington, 6 - 9 pm -

RSVP to smalltechnology@gmail.com

Preliminatry Agenda

Recap of Top Priority Goals and Projects

Begin work to organize teams, leaders with responibilities to prepare details including budgets

Review Treasurers Report

Review Action Item list

 

November 7, 2009

Future Studies / Special Presentations SIG

Topic: Data & Information Presentation, Best Practices

Presenter: Dale Stenseth

Moderator and Discussion Leader: George Kubik

Abstract: Data and information transfer, for business, academic, or organization purposes, has come a long way from what most of us have experienced. Our ability to receive and absorb data far exceeds some of the slow, slow teaching techniques, like hand writing information on a board, or having PowerPoint presentations read to us, verbatim. Many interesting examples of content-rich graphics will be presented and discussed.  A few of Edward Tufte's presentation suggestions will also be presented.

The second half of the session will be brainstorming about the future of data and information presentation, and how MN Futurists presentations, web pages, and documents might be improved. Come prepared to participate!

Reference links:

Graphics and Web Design Based on Edward Tufte's Principles

Wikipedia entry for Edward Tufte

Edward Tufte's Website

The Images of Edward Tufte

InfoDesignPatterns Chart Models

 

November 14, 2009

Special Transportation SIG

Topic: "Does High Speed Rail Have a Viable Future in the U.S.?"

Co-presenters: Bob Friskney and Dick Saunders

Abstract: The Obama Administration has reawakened public interest in high speed rail travel within heavily populated regions of the U.S. with $13 billion in feasibility study grants. Is there a place and a need for high speed rail in the face of intensively developed air and highway networks? We will analyze the social, economic, political and technological (SEPT) aspects of the question. Federal Railroad Authority (FRA) to announce grants in January 2010.

(NOTE: PPT with updates will be posted about Dec. 1.)

 

November 21, 2009

Technology Futures SIG

Topic: "Climate Change Factors from the Viewpoint of a Meteorologist"

Guest Speaker: Dr, David Houghton, Ph.D., retired professor of atmospheric sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and former president of the American Meteorological Society (1995).

Moderator: David Grider

Abstract: The subject of climate change will be discussed from the perspective of the human-produced climate impacts that have come to the attention of the world community as evidence of climate change ascribed to human activity mounts.  This talk/discussion will highlight the many dimensions of the issue and is intended to be a forum where you can share questions and impressions.  Topics to be touched on may include:  history, observations, physics, uncertainties, human influences and impacts -- including international, regional and personal perspectives.

(Also see )US Energy Flow chart

Sustainable Design

 

November 28, 2009

Societal, Management, Education Futures SIG

Topic:  "Comprehensive Systems Analysis (CSA)"

Speaker: Bill Peter

Abstract: Bill Peter will conduct a workshop on CSA, a useful tool for Futurists  When the results of any enterprise are unacceptable, a CSA is needed, a vision of the future must be clarified, and then effective leadership methods must be used to lead the enterprise to its chosen vision. We will discuss what such a system must contain in examples from various segments of society: business, government, education, healthcare, and not-for-profit organizations.

Comprehensive Systems Analysis (11/28/09)

Principle:   When the results of any organization are unacceptable, a Comprehensive Systems Analysis is needed, a vision for the future must be clarified, and then effective leadership methods must be used to lead the organization to its chosen vision.

Case Study Discussions (### in depth, # very briefly):

 

Business 

     # Automobile Companies

     # Newspaper Companies

     ### Textile Industry

     # ABC/CBS/NBC

     # Dot Com Bust

Government

     # Ethanol from Corn

     # United Nations

     ### National Debt/China

     # Fannie May/Freddie Mac

     # Cash for Clunkers

Education

     ### U.S. K-12 Education

Healthcare

     # 17% of the U.S. Economy               

Not-for-profit organizations

     ### Political Parties

     # Churches

Effective Families

     ### Role Modeling and Parenting

Prepared by:    Bill Peter, Consultant/Futurist    www.2020and2035.com    952.933.6850

         billpeter@billpeter.net   6650 Vernon Hills Road   Edina, MN 55436

 

December 5, 2009

Future Studies / Special Presentations SIG

Topic: Complex Adaptive Systems and the Study of the Future

Speaker: George Kubik

Abstract: coming soon

 

 

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