July 5, 2008
Special Interest Group Discussion
Title: "Suggestions for Minnesota's Energy Future" PB-08-Futurists-7-Jul.pdf
Lead Speakers: Ulrich Bonne, David Grider, Brian Toren and Dick Saunders
Moderator: Dick Saunders
US Oil Production Trends
Abstract:
A Minneapolis/St.Paul StarTribune "Counterpoint" article by U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar entitled "The Energy Crisis: Only Bold Steps Will Help," (P. 19, May 17, 2008) did not focus on specifics but reminded us to not expect one "silver bullet" but rather a "silver shot" to achieve clean, renewable, sustainable, secure and "independent" energy sources free of fossil fuels. The SIG speakers seek ideas from Minnesota Futurists and viewers showing, for example:
- How does the retail price of gasoline depend on each link in the supply chain from well to pump. What measures and incentives, if any, should be incorporated into a clean energy bill while simultaneously respecting the laws of supply and demand? Does speculatiion on oil in the futures market influence the retail price -- and if so, how could that be avoided?
- What criteria and measurements can and should be applied to justify specific gov. energy subsidies,if any, to bridge the time period between today's economic non-viability of some energy sources and projected future viability, sustainability and energy independence?
- How would the Minnesota economy benefit if it produced locally 1 billion gallons of gasoline per year (of the total 2.8 billion gals. used in 2007), rather than relying solely on imports?
- What alternative fuels could efficiently be substituted for each of its present main users?
- What savings could be achieved if all new passenger vehicles sold in Minnesota achieved an EPA mileage rating of >30 (or even >40) miles/gallon after allowing manufacturers to meet higher CAFE standards? Will hybrid vehicles using electric or hydrogen power help? Is ethanol's future in jeopardy, if the water use for its production cannot be reduced?
- Should new homes be required to feature 1) alternative sources such as solar water heaters and backyard wind turbines, and 2) insulation standards now required for (electric) heat pump homes?
- Should subsidies be used (and if so, how large) to encourage foresters and farmers to install residual biomass conversion systems to make fuels or fertilizers?
- What incentives might help spur reductions in paper consumption (such as for advertising billboards, flyers, posters, and other business mail, telephone books, and newsprint)
- Would increased public transportation services such as high-speed buses and more light rail lines reduce gasoline and diesel fuel consumption?
- What can we learn from the nuclear contribution to electricity in France? How far into the future is nuclear fusion?
- Can we learn from or adapt the proactive (banking on projected future cost reductions) renewable energy subsidies Germany provides for solar, wind and biomass?
- Other ideas?
- More Info:
- State Policy Impact On Solar
We aim to come up with a balanced approach – but also view that as just one of the criteria. Actually, the “right thing” for MN may not be viewed as “balanced” at all, if we think that to achieve “survival” and a better std. of living in MN 10-50 years from now, we need to make some sacrifices today.
Other criteria we should also consider is whether we adequately address:
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The economic impact of any mandated conservation and subsidy/incentive measures
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The environmental impact of any mandated conservation and subsidy/incentive measures
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Are any mandated conservation and subsidy/incentive measures in or out of line with federal or other states’ measures?
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History lessons: Measures MN should have taken some time back. Will we repeat our past mistakes?
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The MN energy-independence impact of any mandated conservation and subsidy/incentive measures
Solar home tax incentives by state
July 12, 2008
Economic SIG
Title: "Possible Futures for Minnesota Air Service"
Panelists: Jeff Hamiel, executive director, Metropolitan Airports Commission (MAC), and Jim Spensley, president of the South Metro Airport Action Council (SMAAC), the oldest citizen advocacy group for quieter neighborhoods around Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP).
Since March, soaring fuel prices, a slumping economy and excess capacity have forced five U.S. airline bankruptcies or service cessations. More are forecast by industry experts for 2009 if high fuel prices continue. Since their merger agreement this spring, Northwest and Delta have each announced plans to reduce service nationwide this fall. Will this reduction result in any national discount carriers entering the Minnesota market? How will regional carriers adjust? And how much more will ticket prices have to rise?
Moderator: Dick Saunders
Ref. Airlines - Sunset Industry?
Airline News
Second Go-around Problem at JFK in 8 Days: http://mail.google.com/mail/#inbox/11b1554475445fc1
Following are the "odds" Jim Spensley of SMAAC associated with the three merger scenarios he testified about in the MN House Commerce Committee Hearings in Spring 2008:
5 in 10 that most old NWA jobs will be cut or re-located to right-to-work states, and a Delta/NWA flight reduction of 60% to 70% by landed weight will occur at MSP within 15 to 18 months after the merger.
4 in 10 that MSP continues as a major hub because of MAC incentives (more revenue-sharing, Lindbergh expansion, gate policy changes, etc.) that help Delta consolidate connecting services, increasing the hubbing factor compared to 2007 and slow if not stop work at Humphrey. No new airlines will come here.
1 in 10 that that hub operations are continued but reduced during a continuing economic downturn. Delta cash may make the decline more gradual, but the prospect is down before up. The major airlines could all fall into bankruptcy again. This time, Delta headquarters will be in Georgia with the same guy in charge (Richard Anderson) who bailed out here.
Dick,
I believe that the business market will decline slightly as business travelers consolidate trips to save expenses but will continue to travel at a fairly normal rate. On the other hand, the leisure travel will decline significantly. Both younger travelers and older retirees will cut back or stop flying all together. This condition will continue for the next 12 to 18 months. After this period, travel will adjust to the new fare structures and I believe we will see some return to more normal levels. However, traffic will not return to the full level for the next several years. In the long run, I still believe MSP will reach 45-50 million passengers per year by 2025 if Delta treats MSP as a major hub and grows with the market.
Jeff
July 26, 2008
Education SIG
Title: "What Are Possible Workplace and Cultural Impacts of Immigration Trends in the Next Decade?"
Guest Speaker: Elizabeth Glidden, 8th Ward Council Member, Minneapolis City Council
MNF Speaker: Ron Monroe
Moderator: Dick Saunders
Abstract: Ms. Glidden will continue a discussion on recent immigration trends in the Twin Cities she introduced at Minnesota Day at the World Future Society Conference in Minneapolis in July 2007. Mr. Monroe will review world immigration trends. Ms. Glidden will review her research and personal experiences dealing with such trends as an elected city official responsible for policy-making.
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August 2
Future Studies and Special Presentations SIG
Title: China Futures - An Introduction and Exploration Methods
Presenter: David Keenan
Abstract: The 2008 Summer Olympics has prompted us to launch a special series of SIGs on "The Future of China." Running through November, speakers will explore the cultural, economic, education and diplomatic practices of a distant and different country projected to become the world's largest economic power in three decades. We will utilize futures methodologies to examine potential effects on U.S. growth.
Special Guest: Peter Hammond, a former executive with Westinghouse, Emerson Electric and Polaris Industries who spent 20 years setting up manufacturing facilities in China. He resided there for seven years, and speaks Mandarin. Now CEO of AsiaSource, he assists Chinese firms seeking export markets in the U.S. He is a member of the US-China Business Connections trade group based in Minneapolis.
Presentation & Notes: 
HO-China Intro Aug08.doc
August 9
Economics and Finance Futures SIG
Title: China Demographic and Economic Futures
Presenter: Arnie Kwong
Abstract:
The China Challenge2008.pdf
Reference Information:
August 16
Technology Futures SIG
Title: China: Industry, Patents, Education and more
Presenter: Professor Massoud Amin, UMN (bio http://cdtlnet.cdtl.umn.edu/amin.html)
Moderator: David Keenan
Abstract: China_Aug2008.pdf
August 23
Society, Management and Education SIG
Title: "The Global Food Crisis: Where Did It Come From and What Will The Future Bring?"
Presenter: Jim Harkness
Abstract: When grain prices reached historic highs earlier this year and food riots broke out in dozens of countries, governments and experts were quick to point fingers. How did this happen? Was it biofuels? protectionism? Climate change? or those Chinese and Indians, with their growing taste for meat? Presenter Jim Harkness explains where the crisis came from and gives his thoughts on where our food system is going.
Harkness is President of the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy (IATP), a Minnesota-based non-profit that works to promote fair and sustainable food, farm and trade systems. He lived for 16 years in China, where he worked as a Ford Foundation program officer, wildlife researcher, university instructor and Country Director for the World Wildlife Fund (WWF).
Ref. Info: Business/Economy Exports
August 30
Peace SIG
Title: No Meeting - special speaker Aug. 31 see: Iran's Nuclear Status - Scott Ritter
September 6
Future Studies
Title: "100 Trends for the 21st Century + 10 more"
Presenter: David Keenan
Abstract: James Canton, Institute of Global Futures, has presented many lists of top trends for the 21st Century. We will examine some of these.
Presentation: 
100 Top Trends.ppt
September 13, 2008
Economics and Finance Futures SIG
Title: "Beyond The Headlines: How to Use Critical Thinking Skills to Determine the Real Story"
Presenter: James D.Zitek
Abstract:
Most people learn about the economy and the stock market from the mass media. Hours are spent reading newspapers and magazines, watching television news and searching the Internet. Once this information has been absorbed, it is filed away as knowledge. So, the more time spent reading and listening, the smarter you get, right? Not exactly.
What most people do not realize is how much media information is dramatized, mis-interpreted, over-simplified or statistically inaccurate. Surprisingly, the problem is not always political bias; sometimes the stories are just not written very accurately or clearly. Consequently, much of the information you receive about the economy and capital markets can be harmful to your business or your financial health.
This presentation outlines a six-step process used to get at the real story behind the headline (including a real time demonstration of the process as it is being explained), and concludes with examples of the most common mistakes made when trying to understand the economy and the markets.
This presentation is intended to:
1. Open minds to new opportunities and potential problems,
2. Expand the breath and depth of our knowledge in selected areas,
3. Help us become better decision makers,
4. Increase the confidence and staying power of our decisions.
Background Material:What's Happening To Our Daily Newspaper
September 20
Technology Futures
Title: Automotive Futures
Presenter: Hank Lederer
Abstract: Hank likes cars and will tell us what he sees coming down the lane.
September 27
Society, Management and Education Futures
Title:Ten World-Class Management Principles For The Twenty First Century
Ten World-Class Management Principles for the 21st Century
Presenter:Bill Peter
Abstract: Bill Peter, Consultant/Futurist will be presenting this workshop in China in October.
On 9/27/08, the Minnesota Futurists will have a free preview. The ten management
principles have been developed by Bill in conjunction with his consulting clients
and his MBA students at Cardinal Stritch University over the last eight years.
October 4
Future Studies and Special Presentations SIG
Title: Project 10^100 (Google's $10 million, 10th Anniversary Project)
Presenter: David Keenan
Abstract: If you could suggest a unique idea that would help as many people as possible, what would it be?
It's a question worth considering. Never in history have so many people had so much information, so many tools at their disposal, so many ways of making good ideas come to life. Yet at the same time so many people (in all walks of life) could use some help, in small ways and big. In the midst of this, new studies are reinforcing the timeless wisdom that beyond a basic level of material wealth, the only thing that seems to increase individual happiness is... helping other people. In other words, help helps everybody.
But what would help, and what would be most helpful? We don't believe we have the answers, but we do believe the answers are out there. Maybe in a lab, or a company, or a university -- or maybe not. Maybe the answer that helps somebody is in your head, in something you've observed, some notion that you've been fiddling with, some small connection you've noticed, some old way of doing something that you've seen with new eyes.
To mark our 10th birthday and celebrate the spirit of our users and the web, we're launching Project 10^100 (that's "ten to the hundredth") a call for ideas that could help as many people as possible, and a program to bring the best of those ideas to life. CNN will be covering this project, including profiles of ideas and the people who submit them from around the world. For a deeper look, follow along at Impact Your World.
Ideas are due by October 20, 2008. Get started submitting your own ideas, and come back on January 27th to vote on ideas from others. We hope you feel inspired enough to try. Good luck, and may the ones who help the most win. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2008/09/project-10100.html
Presentation:Google’s 10^100 Project updated.ppt - Read and add your comments!
October 11
Economics and Finance Futures SIG
Title: U. S. Financial Crisis--Will the Rescue Plan Work?
Presenters: Roger Rydberg and Dick Saunders
Abstract: Congress, on a second try, approved a bill adding $800 billion to the previous $700 billion of aid to the financial services industry in early October to unfreeze the U.S.credit crisis. Meanwhile, the pain has spread to European and Asian banks. Thursday major countries joined the U.S. Federal Reserve in reducing their interbank interest rates for the first time in history. The U.S. rate was cut from 2.0% to 1.5%. Convinced that the relief plan is inadequate, worldwide stock markets have plunged to five-year lows. A growing number of analysts believe a U.S. recession is imminent. Will more tools be required to thaw the freeze and rebuild confidence? You get to vote.
How To Save The Financial System Sept. 2008
Also see:
The Greenspan Legacy
The End of American Hegemony?
Bailout Failure 08-29-08
Why Don't Economics Textbooks Focus on Financial Crises?
October 18, 2008
Technology Futures SIG
Title: "Genomics Futures"
Presenter: Eric Hand
Abstract: What genomics has revealed about what we are and where we came from.
Also, what it can do for and to us in the future.
Presentation: HO Genomics.ppt Updated 1Nov08
October 25, 2008
Society, Management and Education SIG
Title: "A Little of Lots of Things"
Presenters: Everyone
Abstract: Bill Peter - A view of the news from China via BBC
Brian Toren - "The Elephant and the Dragon - The Rise of China and India and What It Means for All of Us," audio book by Robyn Meredith 2008
(available for loan - contact Dave Keenan)
Jack Carter - "Does America Need a Foreign Policy?" - Henry Kissinger book (2001)
Ron Monroe - Jeff Bezos on Oprah and endorsement of the Amazon Kindle
Bill Peter - "When the US gets a cold, the rest of the world gets pneumonia"
Ron Monroe - "World in the Balance - The People Paradox" - PBS video from Nova series (DVD available for loan - contact Ron M)
Suggestion for Future SIG - Globalization of Crime (this week's Time magazine "Other countries have the Mafia. In Bulgaria, the Mafia has the country."
Anyone interested in developing contact Dave K.
Nov. 1, 2008
Monthly Futures Practice SIG
Title: "Qualities of a Successful Entrepeneur"
Presenter: Duane Carlson with Dave Keenan
Abstract: Duane Carlson has studied entrepeneurship for two decades. He will discuss the ingredients that can make a difference between success and failure.
Presentation: HO ENTREPRENEURSHIP 01Nov08.pptx
Nov. 8, 2008
Economics and Market SIG
Title: "Recession Ahead?"
Speakers: Roger Rydberg and Dick Saunders
Abstract: Most indicators point to one. How deep and how long? Will the current world credit crisis accelerate the timing? What steps should the new administration take?
Also See:Recovery Predictions Oct 2008
Comparison 1929 - 2008 Crash
Stocks After The Crash
Will the Economic Crash Take Down Hopes for Clean Energy
St Louis fed BORROW Graph
Reversal of Fortune - Joseph Stiglitz
Liz Sonders Estimate On Recession
Nov. 15, 2008
Technology SIG
Title: "Cryptography and Snakes"
Speaker: H. Tom Trites
Abstract: Hiding the meaning of messages -- how it's done, how it's undone, and how it's frequently snake oil. Now with Quantum Perfection! Or, is that just a very tiny snake?
(PowerPoint and .pdf coming, sorry for the delay -- htom)
Nov. 22, 2008
Management SIG
Title: "Special Report: My Impressions of China"
Speaker: Bill Peter
Abstract: Management futurist Bill Peter will discuss the results of his recent three-week tour of China, as part of the ongoing Minnesota Futurist China SIG series. www.2020and2035.com Click on China, Capitalism and 2035 link to full essay.
Nov. 29, 2008
Peace and Justice SIG
Title: "Scale-up Coming in Afghanistan War, Then What?"
Presenters: Dick Saunders and Roger Rydberg
Abstract: Gen. Patraeus Takes Over CENTCOM; Can His Iraq Success Carry Over? Obama and Gates Support 20,000 More Troops, More International Help; Obama to Focus on Search for bin Laden; Karzai Praises, Criticizes Progress; Will Terrorist Attacks on Mumbai Delay Negotiations?; Three Possible Long-Term Solutions for Discussion;
Video: PBS Frontline Documentary 11-08
Background
Afghan News Roundup
Afghan Leader Demands Plan for Foreign Forces' Departure
The War In Pakistan Nov 2008
Afghan Issues
Taliban Regaining Hold
Gates Backs Troop Surge
Musharraf and Bin Laden
New Plan for Afghanistan
Pakistan's Anti-Muslim Taliban
Pakistan Peace Issues
Pakistan s 2009 Outlook
Patraeus Biography http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petraeus
Pro-Kashmir Group in Pakistan Suspected of Mumbia Terrorism
Dec. 6, 2008
Technology Futures SIG
Title: "Quantum Weirdness, The Stock Market and Time Travel"
Presenters: Brian Toren, Hank Lederer
Abstract: What is it that makes the quantum world so weird; where cats are dead and alive simultaneously; things can't be measured acccurately, electrons can communicate instantaneously over any distance; and more perplexing to physicists, it doesn't mesh with gravity?
Can this quantum weirdness be used in the real world? It can, hence we have transistors and semiconductors. A researcher has a new idea: "The use of quantum weirdness to receive a message from the future so he can buy stocks with 100% assurance." This theory depends on "time travel," passing a message back in time. Is time travel possible? Do the Future and the Past really exist? If possible, how do we travel? Physicists differ. An alternative theory will be addressed.
Dec. 13, 2008
Economics and Market SIG
Title: "Why This Recession Will Be Worse Than The Last Five"
Presenters: Dick Saunders and Roger Rydberg
Abstract: Evidence mounts daily that this recession, now officially declared to have started in December 2007, will exceed the 1980-81 contraction and possibly challenge older ones in severity. We'll compare the last five contractions and the Great Depression of 1929-32. Will Obama's recovery plan be enough to stem the tide, or merely create inflation? An update of world economic forecasts for 2009-10.
Dec. 20, 2008
Technology SIG
Title: "Biofuels from Algae?"
MNF Speaker: Hank Lederer
Moderator: Dick Saunders
Abstract: Does algae (lowly "pond scum") truly have the potential of helping reduce our dependence on fossil fuels? Can technology overcome present hurdles to grow, harvest, and produce algal on a commercial basis? A look at a carbon neutral source of energy.
References: BIOFUELS FROM ALGAE.doc
Dec. 27, 2008
Economic SIG
Title: "Minnesota's Budget Shortfall"
MNF speaker: Dick Saunders
Moderator: Roger Rydberg
Abstract: How did Minnesota's May forecast for a $900-million budget deficit for 2009-10 deteriorate into a $5.2-billion deficit prospect in six months? Where do the legislature and governor make cuts that will likely impact virtually every state program? An analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the underlying state economy 1990-2003. (Part 1 of a three-part series.)
Reference Info:
'Compare Minnesota' analyses 1990-2003
Thomas Friedman column 12-25-08
Eric Schubert column 12-26-08
Woods & Poole economic forecasts for Plains states 2006-2030
Post-meeting summary (to come)
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