Minnesota Futurists Home Page

Current Meeting & Topic Schedule

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Jan. 3, 2009

Future Studies and Special Presentations

Title: "Innovation in the 21st Century"

Guest Speaker: Jeff Janssen, Division Scientist, 3M Company

Moderator: David Keenan

Host: Bill Peter

Abstract:  What processes will we use to solve the great challenges we face as a nation and as a world?

In this seminar we will discuss the Innovation Process -- a process that can be used to transform wisdom into value. This value can be measured for three types of stakeholders: 1) as enhanced sales, profits or cost reductions for the corporation, 2) as an improved standard of living for the impoverished, or 3) as the creation of a sustainable energy model for the world.

 

We further will explore the Innovation Process used by many leading corporations to generate new ideas and new businesses in a global economy.  We will examine models such as the Disruptive Innovation described by Clayton Christiansen; we will briefly discuss emerging innovation tools and trends like Tris, Ninesigma, Innocentive, Inventables and the Killer Innovation Process. How will the innovation process change by 2050 with all of the new enabling tools we will have at our disposal and the emerging technological, societal and global trends?

 

Speaker Biography: Janssen is based in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam in order to identify large new business opportunities in emerging markets for the Automotive Aftermarket Division of 3M. He mentors research teams designing products in Japan, India and China. Janssen has 30 years of experience at product development for the automotive, lighting industry and microelectronics industries. He is the inventor or co-inventor on over 20 patents. He teaches classes on entrepreneurship and innovation internally at 3M. He was trained as a chemist and chemical engineer at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa and holds an MBA degree from Cardinal Stritch University in Milwaukee, WI.

 

Jan. 10, 2009

Economic/Markets SIG

Title: "Clean-Energy Ideas to Meet Minnesota's Mandates and Standards"

MNF Speakers: Ulrich Bonne, Brian Toren and David Grider

Moderator: Ulrich Bonne

Abstract: We will revisit our July 2008 SIG conclusions and brainstorm what technology barriers (i.e. those in need of R&D effort) stand in the way of achieving MN clean energy mandates (for CO2 emissions (and fossil fuel usage) reductions to 80% below 2005 levels by 2050), in the MN-applicable, DOE-proposed categories of:

1) Efficiency Improvements,

2) Renewable Energies (solar, wind, geo, hydro, hydrogen, biomass feedstock),

3) Biomass conversion to fuels or fertilizers,

4) Energy storage,

5) Coal (w/CO2 sequestration) and nuclear power.

 

Jan. 17, 2009

Economic/Markets SIG

Title: "Minnesota's Budget Crisis -- Part 2"

MNF Speaker: Dick Saunders

Moderator: Roger Rydberg

Abstract: A look at the issues beneath the $5-billion budget deficit for 2010-11. A primer on the players in the process. Know your legislators. Reactions to Gov. Pawlenty's State of State address Jan. 15.  Bring your ideas to stimulate long-term growth.  Part 2 of a 3- or 4-part series. NOTE: Summary to follow shortly.

 

Jan 24, 2009

Society SIG

Title:"Using Generational Archetypes to Provide Clues to Possible Future Social Change"

MNF Presenter: Steve Troutman

Abstract: The "Greatest Generation," "Baby Boomers," and "Generation X" are well known generational archetypes. But this is not the first time we have seen generational cohorts behave as these three have. In this presentation, we will examine the research into the cycle of repeating generational archetypes.  We will look at the characteristics of each archetype and the cycle which spans 80 years.  We will see how the generational cycle allows us to understand some past behaviors and predict some possible or probable futures.

Abstract: Generations for MN Futurists 2009-01.pdf

Presentation Click here

Recommended Reading: "The Fourth Turning" by William Strauss and Neil How (1997)

 

Jan. 31, 2009

Peace and Justice SIG

Title: "Peace and Prosperity through Money Innovation"

MNF Presenter: Joel Hodroff

Moderator: Roger Rydberg

Abstract:Peace and sustainable prosperity are at our fingertips! All of the needed technologies, know how and renewable resources to get the job done are abundantly available. The United States could barter disarmament for rapid and sustainable global economic development, producing unprecedented results at the pace of modern global finance and commerce. We need merely to transcend outdated economic theories and financial tools.

 

Joel Hodroff discusses groundbreaking work on how "money innovation" can reverse the economic downturn in the US and worldwide. Money - the electronic debits and credits that organize the production and distribution of goods and services - is the only factor of production that is working inefficiently. He demonstrates that money innovation is a constant in economic history, as we have transitioned from barter to gold coins to paper currency to electronic banking. Joel reveals how the next great leap in money innovation can address today's seemingly intractable social, economic and environmental challenges, while laying the foundation for world peace.

 

Bio:Joel Hodroff is an international authority on the use of non-cash financial instruments for commercial and economic development applications. In 2005, he was selected an Innovator of the Year by Minnesota Finance and Commerce newspaper.

MN Futurists Jan 31, 2009.ppt

 

Feb. 7, 2009

Future Studies and Special Presentations

Title: "Highlights of the 2007 World Future Society Conference"

MNF Presenter: David Grider

Abstract: Review of parts of the 2007 WFS conference (held in Minneapolis July 29-31,2007)

We listened to the introduction to the presentation  by Jim Lee on the Future of Biofuels, and looked at the slides by

Daniel M. Judkiewicz "If Crises are Natural, Can We Avoid Them or Manage Them?"

More information at:

http://www.wfs.org/2007sessionlks.htm

or from the Mn Futurists library CD's.

 

Feb. 14, 2009

Society SIG

Title: "Minnesota's Sesquecentennial Innovation"

MNF Speaker: Steve Troutman

Abstract: At the 150th year milestone for Minnesota, we look in part at the collaboration model evolving in Rochester, MN between industry, a private medical institution and the state. What are the objectives and the potential economic benefits? (Second of a three-part series on "Minnesota's Search for a New Economy.")  We will also look at Demographics and Climate Change impacts on Minnesota.

Minnesota Futures for MNF 2009-02-14 final.ppt

 

Feb. 21, 2009

Economics SIG

Title: "Some Minnesota Economic Growth Proposals for 2020"

Guest Speaker: Matt Entenza, MN 2020 Progressive Think Tank

Moderator: Dick Saunders

Abstract: (Third in a three-part series on "Minnesota's Search for a New Economy")

 

Feb. 28, 2009

Technology SIG

Title: "Ranking the 30 Most Significant Innovations of Past 30 Years, and some for the next 11"

Discussion Leader: David Grider

We started with the 30 most significant innovations of the last 30 years.  See

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/features/special/top-30-innovations_home/

Then we brainstormed the best innovations of the next 11 years.

We looked briefly at a similar formal exercise being done at Technology Forcast:

http://www.techcast.org/

10 Most Important Innovations of the Last 10 Years

 

March 7, 2009

Future Studies and Special Presentations SIG

Title: "Future Toys"

Presenter: David Keenan

Abstract:  Toys are a means of exploring and learning, for adults as well as children.  We will review a forecast of toys for the future and then examine several recent announcements of new toys.

Presentation: Click here

 

March 14, 2009

Economics SIG

Topic: "Money as Debt"  (See www.youtube.com/watch)

MNF Speaker: George Paulos

Abstract:We are all utterly dependent upon the monetary system. People expend their working years accumulating money as a form of wealth, but almost nobody understands the nature of the money that they work so hard to obtain.

What is money? What is the US dollar? It is not what you think! Even the "profession" of economics is in denial about the truth of our modern monetary system. The recent convulsions in the banking and finance make these questions timely. Congress and the President are engaged in an historic rescue of an out-of-control financial crisis. Unfortunately, they seem to be clueless about the real nature of the system that they are responsible to maintain.

Economics "junkie" George Paulos will present an objective overview of our modern debt-based monetary system along with its characteristics and consequences.

Should the current system be abolished? Should the Federal Reserve be replaced? We will discuss these issues and investigate the alternatives.

 

March 21, 2009

Special Topic: "Identifying and Scheduling SIGs for Remainder of 2009"

Moderators: Brian Toren, Dick Saunders, Roger Rydberg

Abstract: The Minnesota Futurist organization needs new SIG presentation subjects and presenters for the remainder of 2009. All members need to take some ownership in this process. Bring your ideas for new SIGs, and volunteer to either present or find a guest expert. Check out link below to see an updated list of possible SIGs to stir your imaginations. This is an important meeting; please be there!

> 

Suggested Future SIG topics (as of 3-20-09) Add yours at bottom.

"1) A Second Look at Climate Change Causal Factors and Effects" (Grider)

"2)A First Look at Fusion Energy's Future in the U.S." with 3-16-09 PBS film clip (Toren)

"3)Cloud Computing's Exploding Applications" (Rydberg with Guest Speaker Larry Gottschalk)

"4)Should St. Paul's Ford Plant be Converted to Green Tech Use?" (Green Tech Team)

"5)Soft Power: Can Obama Make it Work as a New Tool of U.S. Foreign Policy?" (Rydberg)

"6)Biotech's Future in Minnesota: Waxing or Waning?" (Biotech Team: Troutman, Keenan and Hand?)

"7)Charter Schools' Future in Minnesota" (Education SIG; possible speaker: Ted Kolderie)

"8)Review of WFS 2008 Best Presentations" (Grider--midyear?)

"9) Review of WFS 2009 Best Presentations" (Grider--end of year?)

"10) Book Review: 'Tipping Point' and 'Blink' by Malcolm Gladwell -- What Futurist Model Do They Reflect?"

"11) Behavorial Economics: How Is the Internet Affecting Group Decision-Making?; 'Black Swan' by Nicholas    Taleb --an example of outlier thinking?" (Kubik)

12) "The Four Types of General Systems Theory and Their Practical Application" (Kubik)

13) "What Key Elements Should Be Included in 2009 Health Care Reform Bill?" (possible guest speaker: Donald Pettengill, retired CEO of Allina Health Systems) (Social SIG Sat.)

14) "Medical Ethics Futures" (possible guest speaker Steve Miles, UM Medical School ethicist)

15) Synthetic Biology - a look at companies, development and opportunities (Keenan + Lederer?, Hand?)

16) Metamaterials - Wil McCarthy's 2003 book Hacking Matter and recent developments (Keenan + Lederer?)

17) DNA Origami - Paul Rothemund video (Keenan)

18) Nanotenna - woven nanotubes & other recent developments in nanomaterial enabled product developments  (Keenan + Lederer?)

19) Acoustic Futures - Focussed Sound, Broadcast audio trends, and other interesting trends in sound (Keenan)

20) Re*Frame Creative Commons Index for ALL-WinWin StoryTech Eco-Futures Forum (Burkhart) 

21) The Future of Minnesota Futurists(Revisit & Revise 2003-2007 Strategic Planning Framework)

22) Lost Legends of La Flecha (CE: 1400-2100)

 

March 28, 2009

Peace SIG

Topic:  " Should Congress Create a Dept. of Peace?"

Speaker: Roger Rydberg

Abstract:(See HR 808)

The Benefits:The primary function of a U.S. Department of Peace would be to research, facilitate, and articulate nonviolent solutions to domestic and international conflict. It would

1) Advise the President, the Secretaries of Defense and State, and others on root causes of violence,

plus practical ways to dismantle violence while still in a formative phase.

2) Support the military by: providing cultural, ethnic and psychologically insightful information, education and technology; offering practical skills (conflict resolution techniques, and the like) for the amelioration of violence among adversarial factions; administer the training and support of civilian peacekeepers to participate in multinational nonviolent peace forces.

This SIG will look at the pros and cons as well as the probability of establishing a Dept. of Peace.

PPT: nationaldoppowerpointv_main.ppt

Background:

www.thepeacealliance.org/content/view/55/33/

www.daytonpeacemuseum.org/department_of_peace.htm

Supporters in Congress: www.thepeacealliance.org/content/view/49/649/

 

April 4, 2009

Futures Tools

Topic: "SIG Schedule Through End of 2009" and "Of Robots, Worms and April Fools"

Leaders: Brian Toren, Roger Rydberg and Dick Saunders, with Dave Keenan

Abstract: We will examine a few of the two dozen most frequently used futures techniques; and will firm up the program schedule through June if not beyond, based on suggestions received at the March 21 meeting.

As part of our Random Bits - Futures Research, we take a quick look at Conficker, CADIE, Adam & Eve (the robot brains not the biblical folks) news from Cornell and some April Fools items.

Presentation  Of Robots, Worms and April Fools.ppt

 

April 11, 2009

Market SIG

Topic:"What Shape Will This Recession Take?"

Speaker: Dick Saunders

Moderators/Production Aides: Roger Rydberg and Tom Trites

Abstract: Economists differ as to whether the current downturn will carve a V, U or L on the charts of historical market recoveries. A look at the past four recoveries and discussion of the possible, probable and preferred shapes for this one. Are there any market sectors beginning to lead the way? A scan.

Backgound : summerswww.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=102950739

Money Supply 2009

online.wsj.com/public/rsources/documents/info-RECESSION_0209.html

WSJ Economist Survey 4-09-09

Weiss White Paper 3-18-09

Leading/Coincident/Trailing Indicator Survey 3-19-09

  (www.conference-board.org/pdt_free/economics//bci/commute/pdf)

Moody's Dismal Scientist (www.economy.com/dismal) and (consensus)

 

April 18, 2009

Technology SIG

Title: "The Path to Energy Independence"

Presenter: Brian Toren

Moderator: David Keenan 

Abstract: This seminar is a working session; there are three objectives: 1, review some basic futurist forecasting tools; 2, review our SEPT (Social, Ecnomical, Political and Technical) impact analysis tool; 3, introduce a weighting matrix based on Kepner Tregoe theory. The specific topic to be addressed is the energy independence. The goal is to reduce a list of possible or probable futures, and create a preferable future list. The possible list comes from two Princeton professors: Robert Socolow, engineering and Stephen Pacala, ecology. There will be time to seriously evaluate only 2 or 3 of the 17 listed possibilities.

 

April 25, 2009

Topic:  "New Momentum for Minnesota's Biotechnology Industry?"

Guest Panelists: Rebekah Kent, senior program manager, Biotech Business Alliance of Minnesota. and Thomas Lee, bioscience reporter, Star Tribune.

Ms. Kent joined BBAM in January 2007 and leads its BioBusiness Resource section.

Lee covers Minnesota emerging/growth companies with a special focus on medical technology for the Star Tribune. He writes both the new Patent Pending blog and Honing the Edge, a continuous series on innovation in Minnesota. Lee is also a freelancer reporter for China Daily USA and has previously written for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Seattle Times, Bank Advisor and MN Economics. He is president of the Minnesota chapter of the Asian American Journalists Association.

Moderator: David Keenan

Presentation:

D2025 April 09.ppt

More Info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_biology  and

http://en.wikipedia.org

/wiki/File:Genomics_GTL_Pictorial_Program.jpg

http://www.biobusinessalliance.org

 

May 2, 2009

Future Studies / Special Topic

The Delphi Method featuring Nanomedicine

Speaker: David Keenan and George Kubik

Abstract: 

Presentation part 1: Nanomedicine for Cancer Introduction

Presentation part 2: The Delphi Method

 

May 9, 2009

Business/Market SIG

Topic:  "Technology, Economics and Piracy - The View From a Freighter"

Speaker: Dale Stenseth

Moderator: Roger Rydberg

Abstract:  MNF member Dale Stenseth traveled around the world as a passenger on a freighter from Oct. 2008 to Feb. 2009. He will briefly describe his observations.

  Personal Observations:

   Technology

   Country highlights

   Economics

Growth estimates

    The effect of containerization

    Freighter operational economics - unintended consequences

    Multi-national crews - trends

    Consequence of lower freight volumes, idle freighters world-wide, low shipping costs

  Pirates.

    After a 5 minute introduction, participants will be asked to help define the problem, and to suggest which of the following futurist tools might be helpful, and how:

    *  Trend Extrapolation

    *  Cross Impact analysis

    *  SEPTs

    *  SWOTS

    *  Normative (Goal forecasting) based on needs/wants

    *  Delphi Method

    *  Cause and Effect Modeling

    *  Unforeseen Consequences

    *  Scenarios, e.g., What If Scenarios

    *  Issues/Possibilities/Impacts Outline

    *  Wild Cards

References:

http://dalestenseth.blogspot.com Dale's daily blog during the trip

http://adventure.stenseth.org/ Dale's adventure pages

Freighter Odyssey - Around the World in 130 Days by Dale Stenseth ISBN 978-0-578-01493-7

The Box by Marc Levinson

The Man Who Loved China - Simon Winchester

Krakatoa - Simon Winchester

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL667436720090506 Reuters Factbox

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pirate Wikipedia - Pirate

http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0506/p02s07-usgn.html CS Monitor- Pirates

http://www.icc-ccs.org/index.php?option=com_fabrik&view=visualization&controller=visualization.googlemap&Itemid=89 Piracy Maps

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html CIA World Factbook

(Results of member poll on risk/reward evaluation and solutions taken after the presentation. 10 voters:)

Ranking of solutions by importance:

Political/Diplomatic/Economic: 36

Detection: 32

Avoidance: 31

Military action: 28

No action: 19

Ranking by probability:

Detection: 39

Avoidance: 34

Military: 31

Political/Diplomatic/Economic: 25

No action: 25

NOTE: Results may have been skewed by two news articles circulated during/after presentation from TIME (4-27-09) and New York Times (5-9-09), TIME concluded: "The root cause is a failed state.The pirates are the maritime wing of the warlord culture. Helping Somalia might be a worthy goal once the pirates are defeated militarily"  NYT interviewed a pirate leader in Puntland, Somalia, who said, among other things, that he donates 10% of his earnings to charity."

 

May 16, 2009

Technology SIG

Topic:  "Future of the U.S. Solar Manufacturing Industry"

Speaker: Dick Saunders and David Keenan

Moderator: Roger Rydberg

Abstract: The U.S. has fallen from the world leader to fifth place among countries developing solar manufacturing capabilities in the last 15 years. Why, and what if anything can or should be done to strengthen our position? Futures tools to be used: horizon scanning, SWOT, trend analysis, and wild cards to determine possible, probable and preferable alternatives.

Presentation:  Photovoltaic Solar Energy.ppt

Followup Information: Solar and Wind Power Questions Answered.doc  Thanks to Cam for raising the questions.

Solar Module Prices Down 40 Pct in 1H

 

May 23, 2009

Topic:  Some Exerpts of Societal, Management, Education Futures from WFS 2007 National Meeting

Speaker: David Grider

Abstract:

 

May 30, 2009

Peace/Justice/Ethics SIG

Topic: "U.S. Diplomacy Futures in a Time of World Change"

Speaker: Roger Rydberg

Moderator: Dick Saunders

Additional Resources on this topic

Hawks depart as Clinton ushers in new era of US 'soft power'

:http://www.charlierose.com/view/clip/9870

http://www.charlierose.com/view/clip/9866

http://www.silobreaker.com/use-of-soft-power-in-counterterrorismwhat-i-wrote-on-5_2262314572415238144

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/27821081/obamas_chess_masters?action=rate#rate

Soft Power Strategy

SWOT Analysis of Soft Power

Soft Power SWOT Elements

Soft Power Defense Spending 2009

Putting Smart Power To Work

 

June 6, 2009

Topic: Special Presentation: "Future Treatments for Attention Deficit Disorder (and some other Neurologic Conditions)"

Speaker: H. Tom Trites

Abstract: ADD was first written about more than 200 years ago. Since then, we've learned, first a little, and in the last two decades, a great deal. The next steps in managing and rebuilding your brain are on the way.

Link to video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bmc0ERKfjP0 Or find it on YouTube by searching "spark John Ratey"

Bonus video: "3000 years of Art in 3 minutes" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoQh7F_1mbk or even better (just the art) at http://vimeo.com/612081 (be sure to click the button for full screen view)

Russel Barkley's power point presentation that I skipped over: http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=3&url=http%3A%2F%2Flearningbehavioreval.com%2FDocuments%2FADHD%2520Life%2520Course%2520and%2520TX%2520Impact%25202008.ppt&ei=KagzSs6eBI-oM-iFgZcK&usg=AFQjCNFMeS81tpOWJaqDMOzB_B3wAkNjZQ

learningbehavioreval.com/Documents/ADHD%20Life%20Course%20and%20TX%20Impact%202008.ppt

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WroDEcG7tJc

 

June 13, 2009

Economics/Market SIG

Topic:  "Carbon Emissions Legislation: What's Ahead?"

Speaker: Roger Rydberg

Moderator: Dick Saunders

Abstract: The Waxman-Markley bill now before a House committee has prompted vigorous lobbying by the energy industry against such administration proposals as capping and trading carbon emissions to pay for a middle-class tax cut. A discussion of possible, preferred and probable outcomes.

References:Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change http://www.ipcc.ch/

A Brief History http://www.carbontax.org/progress/a-brief-history-of-energy-tax-efforts/

Carbon tax proposal heats up

Carbon Capture And Storage: Economist June 2008

Governors Set Green House Goals

Cargill to Sell Offsets

Waxman Merky Bill acesa_summary.pdf 

The Global Warming Survival Guide - WHAT YOU CAN DO:

http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/environment/article/0,28804,1602354_1603074_1603121,00.html

 

June 20, 2009

Topic:"The Great Global Warming Swindle" (2007)

Speaker: Bill Peter

Moderator: Tom Mader

Abstract: MAN'S CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING: FACT OR FICTION? Contrary to some, the debate on man’s contribution to global warming is not over. On this independently produced BBC-TV video, some noted world climatologists address some of the perceived myths and misconceptions surrounding the current debate.  We believe scientific inquiry should not be conducted by “consensus” or swayed by partisan ideals. A summary of the chapter discussion that followed will be posted shortly..

Preview link: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=288952680655100870 76 minutes

Other info:WSJ - It’s Time to Cool the Planet