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Hawks depart as Clinton ushers in new era of US 'soft power'

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Obama and his secretary of state are assembling an experienced team of diplomats designed to end the confrontational style of the Bush years Barack Obama will mark a radical break in American foreign policy this week by unveiling a team of diplomats tasked with ushering in a new era of dialogue with enemies abroad.

 

As Hillary Clinton prepares for Senate confirmation hearings this week, she will head a group of advisers who are virtual opposites to the appointees made by President George W Bush. While Bush favoured aggressive neoconservative ideologues, Obama has selected people whose doveish credentials seem impeccable.

 

They will be responsible for reversing the political unilateralism of the Bush years and opening direct negotiations with hostile states, potentially ranging from Syria to Cuba and Venezuela and maybe including Iran and even Islamic militant group Hamas.

 

The Obama foreign policy team that has emerged is focused on know-how and experience - often gained during the Clinton era. Many of the appointments have a clear focus on the Islamic world. Former UN ambassador Richard Holbrooke, who brokered a peace deal in the Balkans, will be appointed a special adviser to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Former Middle East negotiator Dennis Ross will be a special adviser on Iran and the surrounding region, showing that Obama is keen on opening a diplomatic front in America's dispute with Tehran. Ross has a history of personal involvement in Middle East peace talks, including numerous negotiations between Palestinians, Arab states and Israel.

 

Other picks are Kurt Campbell, another former Clinton official, who will be an assistant secretary of state for east Asia and the Pacific, and Philip Gordon, a former member of the National Security Council, will be assistant secretary of state for Europe. "These are people who reflect Obama's world-view that sees the world less from a power-projecting perspective and more from looking at problems and seeing how to solve them," said Michael Fullilove, a fellow at two independent thinktanks, the Brookings Institution in Washington and the Lowy Institute in Australia.

 

Obama's choices back up his stated aims during his presidential election campaign. During the Democratic primaries, Obama said he would hold direct talks with hostile states. Despite a firestorm of criticism in the media - including from his then rival Clinton - Obama held to his position. Now Clinton will be in charge of implementing it. "He showed he would not be dictated to by the foreign policy establishment. He also showed he would stick to his guns," said Fullilove.

 

The list of potential enemies for America to talk to is long. First and foremost is Iran, whose nuclear ambitions are the subject of deep suspicion in Washington and many other world capitals. Obama has held out the prospect of negotiating directly with Tehran about its programme, reversing years of open hostility from Bush's White House.

 

Other states where diplomatic relations could improve include Cuba, Syria, Venezuela and North Korea. The list could also include non-state groups such as Hamas. Last week the Guardian reported that Obama officials were open to establishing lines of contact with the Islamic militant group as a necessary step in trying to push forward the Middle East peace process. An Obama aide subsequently denied that direct talks were envisaged. But, given the make-up of his emerging foreign policy team, it seems unlikely that Obama will simply replicate the style of the Bush administration when it comes to dealing with extremist groups.

 

The new strategy is not without its critics. Last week former US defence secretary William Perry caused a stir in Washington when he warned that Obama could face an Iranian nuclear crisis within a year, with perhaps Israel seeking a military strike at Tehran.

 

"President Obama will almost certainly face a serious crisis with Iran. Indeed, I believe that crisis point will be reached in his first year in office," he said. That view has been echoed by conservative thinkers, who say that a more engaged foreign policy with hostile powers will be a potentially disastrous mistake. "It will be a high-risk and extremely dangerous strategy. It would project weakness and indecision and not prevent a nuclear-armed Iran," said Nile Gardiner, a director at conservative thinktank the Heritage Foundation.

 

The new style of foreign policy in Washington is not likely to be entirely straightforward. The fundamental fact of America's sole superpower status will remain in place, despite its economic troubles. The country will remain a vocal backer of Israel, even in the face of the war in Gaza. At the same time, Obama could expose deep splits with Europe over Afghanistan. He has repeatedly stressed the need for more Nato and US troops to be sent to Kabul, despite the war's unpopularity in Europe.

 

"He has been very forceful over the Afghanistan question. We may see an emerging transatlantic divide over Afghanistan," said Gardiner.

 

May 17, 2009

World Watches for U.S. Shift on Mideast

WASHINGTON — Five weeks ago, President Obama stood before the Turkish legislature in Ankara and said many Americans had Muslims in their families or had lived in a Muslim-majority country. “I know,” he said, “because I am one of them.”

 

But will that exposure lead Mr. Obama to take a different tack from his predecessors in his dealings with Israel?

That question, which has captivated a wide spectrum of people, from America’s Israel lobby to Palestinian-Americans to the Muslim world, will take center stage on Monday, when Israel’s hawkish prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has his first face-to-face meeting with Mr. Obama since he became president.

 

In an interview broadcast Saturday on Israeli television, Israel’s defense minister, Ehud Barak, said he believed that in the meeting, Mr. Netanyahu would signal a significant policy shift for his new government and endorse the creation of a Palestinian state — perhaps reflecting uncertainty about whether Mr. Obama would accept an Israeli hard line.

 

“This is a piece of the cloud that’s hovering over this meeting: is this man different?” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator at the State Department and the author of “The Much Too Promised Land: America’s Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace.” “The fact that he’s African-American. The fact that his middle name is Hussein. The fact that the world for him is not black or white, that the Israeli-Palestinian situation is not black and white, there is gray, and in that gray lies the ability of this president to understand the needs and requirements of Palestinians. Is that on Benjamin Netanyahu’s mind? There’s no question that that’s there.”

 

Mr. Obama’s past suggests why, four months into his presidency, the answer to the question remains elusive. His first book, “Dreams From My Father,” delves deeply into matters of race and nationality and the need to belong somewhere, issues that permeate the Arab-Israeli conflict. But in the book Mr. Obama does not address specifically how he views Israel and the plight of the Palestinians.

 

As a state senator in Chicago, Mr. Obama cultivated friendships with Arab-Americans, including Rashid Khalidi, a Palestinian-American scholar and a critic of Israel. Mr. Obama and Mr. Khalidi had many dinners together, friends said, in which they discussed Palestinian issues.

 

During the 1990s, Mr. Obama also attended tributes to Arab-Americans, where he often seemed “empathetic” to the cause of Palestinians, said Ali Abunimah, a Palestinian-American journalist in Chicago.

 

This contrasts with the more “tabula rasa” image of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that many of Mr. Obama’s predecessors brought to their presidencies — a blank slate that was then shaped by the strong alliance with Israel that is a fixture of politics in the United States, many Middle East experts say.

 

“I think this president gets it, in terms of the suffering of the Palestinians,” said Charles W. Freeman Jr., a former United States ambassador to Saudi Arabia. “He gets it, which is already light years ahead of the average elected American politician.”

 

Mr. Obama’s predecessors, Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, came of age politically with the American-Israeli viewpoint of the Middle East conflict as their primary tutor, said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli peace negotiator. While each often expressed concern and empathy for the Palestinians — with Mr. Clinton, in particular, pushing hard for Middle East peace during the last months of his presidency — their early perspectives were shaped more by Israelis and American Jews than by Muslims, Mr. Levy said.

 

“I think that Barack Obama, on this issue as well as many other issues, brings a fresh approach and a fresh background,” Mr. Levy said. “He’s certainly familiar with Israel’s concerns and with the closeness of the Israel-America relationship and with that narrative. But what I think might be different is a familiarity that I think President Obama almost certainly has with where the Palestinian grievance narrative is coming from.”

 

None of this necessarily means that Mr. Obama will chart a course that is different from his predecessors’. During the campaign he struck a position on Israel that was indistinguishable from those of his rivals Hillary Rodham Clinton and John McCain, going so far as to say in 2008 that he supported Jerusalem as the undivided capital of Israel. (He later attributed that statement to “poor phrasing in the speech,” telling Fareed Zakaria of CNN that he meant to say he did not want barbed wire running through Jerusalem.)

 

Still, many Palestinian-Americans who hoped that Mr. Obama would come into office and quickly seek to press the Israeli government on Palestinian issues have been disappointed.

 

“In practice, despite the hype, there is much more continuity with previous administrations,” Mr. Abunimah said. “People get carried away with the atmospheric change, but the substance of the U.S. policy towards Israel has been the same policy.”

 

Last year, for instance, Mr. Obama was quick to distance himself from Robert Malley, an informal adviser to his campaign, when reports arose that Mr. Malley, a special adviser to Mr. Clinton, had had direct contacts with Hamas, the militant Islamist organization that won the Palestinian legislative elections in 2006 and that controls Gaza. Similarly, he distanced himself from Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former national security adviser who was often critical of Israel, after complaints from some pro-Israel groups.

 

And Mr. Obama offered no public support for the appointment of Mr. Freeman to a top intelligence post in March after several congressional representatives and lobbyists complained that Mr. Freeman had an irrational hatred of Israel. Mr. Freeman angrily withdrew from consideration for the post.

 

But Mr. Freeman, in a telephone interview last week, said he still believed that Mr. Obama would go where his predecessors did not on Israel. Mr. Obama’s appointment of Gen. James L. Jones as his national security adviser — a man who has worked with Palestinians and Israelis to try to open up movement for Palestinians on the ground and who has sometimes irritated Israeli military officials — could foreshadow friction between the Obama administration and the Israeli government, several Middle East experts said.

 

The same is true for the appointment of George J. Mitchell as Mr. Obama’s special envoy to the region; Mr. Mitchell, who helped negotiate peace in Northern Ireland, has already hinted privately that the administration may have to look for ways to include Hamas, in some fashion, in a unity Palestinian government.

Mr. Obama’s meeting with Mr. Netanyahu, while crucial, may only preview the beginning of the path the president will take, Mr. Freeman said.

 

“You can’t really tell anything by what happened to me and the fact that he didn’t step forward to take on the skunks,” he said, referring to his own appointment controversy and Mr. Obama’s silence amid critics’ attacks. “The first nine months, Nixon was absolutely horrible on China. In retrospect, it was clear that he had every intention to charge ahead, but he was picking his moment. He didn’t want to have the fight before he had to have the fight.”

“I sense that Obama is picking his moment,” Mr. Freeman said.

 

Ben Werschkul contributed reporting.

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