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Electric Car Energy and Cost Analysis

Page history last edited by PBworks 15 years, 4 months ago

 

GM Will Make 100,000 Volts by 2010, with an all-electric range of 40 miles

Electric Car $25000  a Norvegian all-electric car with a 125-155 mile range, starting US sales 2009

Xcel Energy Launches Groundbreaking Wind-to-Battery Project

SCiB Recharges in 5 Minutes, Has a Lifespan of 10 Years

BMW Mini Electric

 

 

AEV and PHEV Power Needs and Benefits

 by Ulrich Bonne, Ph.D., CTO, MinneFuel, LLC, Hopkins, MN,

      Member of the MNFs,  25 Sept. 2008, rev. 22 Oct.'08

 

Introduction

The recent surge in gasoline prices demands that we revisit alternate sources of energy to drive cars and heat homes. Tables 1 and 2 (in the enclosure)show the attractive and relative low cost of electricity. Furthermore, a look at the average annual load on or utilization of the world’s installed electricity generation capacity, see Table 3 (in the enclosure and also below), shows that it is generally under 60 % and even below 50% in the US. Clearly, such data beg exploration of the viability of battery- or electricity-driven vehicles.  Table 4 (enclosure) shows some relevant data for different classes of all-electric or battery-electric vehicles (AEVs, BEVs): battery weight and cost to achieve 33 and 150-mile ranges for electric-mode drives, without detailing the saving from removal of the IC engine, transmission, fuel storage & injection, ignition and exhaust clean-up.

 

However, reports of the high cost of hybrid vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and AEVs and their batteries abound, with contentions of “no-win” trade between tail-pipe and power plant stack emissions, and “better stick to your gas guzzler for now” notions have created more confusion and uncertainty than the AEVs deserve. This write-up intends to shed some light on the above concerns, debunk some misinformation and show why we have a great opportunity to generate a better future and a “win” for every type of stakeholder. Below, we will address concerns such as:

 

  • Will the conversion to Plug-in-Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) cause disruptions in the electric power supply in 10, 20 or more years from now?  
  • Are there measures and plans one can implement to minimize or eliminate such disruptions?  
  • What are the potential costs and benefits from such conversions to the user, the utility and the government?  

 

 

ORNL’s report (Jan 2008 by Hadley and Tsvetkova)[1] already mentions the possibility of a triple “free lunch,” i.e. PHEVs and especially AEVs promise to 1) reduce dependence on foreign oil, 2) reduce emissions, and 3) help to address the “underutilization” of generation and transmission capacity in the US during off-peak hours. However, one of the models used (NEMS) does “not model the transmission system”, and the assumptions made in the Oak Ridge Competitive Electricity Dispatch (ORCED) model about vehicle and transmission efficiencies are less than clear (although the model is currently available as spreadsheet on the web[2]). Unfortunately, “The average price calculated by ORCED is found by dividing the total revenues for all plants by the total sales,” thus obscuring peak and off-peak price sensitivities. Equally unclear are the assumptions made in another, more recent report[3], so that one may have difficulty understanding its conclusions. Two recent Newsweek articles fail to mention gasoline vs. electricity energy costs and down-play the potential ownership benefits to users and utility power companies[4,5]. It appears that the

 

  • Improved overall efficiency of an electric motor + battery system (80-90%)[6],  
  • New Li-ion/CoO2, Li-ion/Mn2O4,Li-ion/TiO4(SCiB) and Li-ion/FePO4 battery performances (short charge/discharge time, safe, wide temperature range and associated >95% charge-discharge efficiency)[6],  
  • Very low system efficiency (fuel-to-wheel) of present average gasoline-powered, conventional vehicles (CV) (12-18%)[7,8] relative to that of utility power plants including transmission & distribution losses (~30-35%)[10,11],  
  • Increasing availability of distributed wind- and solar-power sources,  
  • Ability to incentivise users towards optimal recharging times-and-power profiles, as has been done in Minnesota e.g. for electric water heaters for many years, and in California for PHEVs[9]  
  • Ability to incentivise users towards local, distributed use of electricity storage e.g. via batteries,  
  • The contribution to electricity cost of underutilized capacity, which would make electricity cost high both when underutilized and when using high-cost peaking units, rather than calculating electricity costs based on lumped demand and production data[1].  
  • Overall costs and benefits of AEVs to the user, the power utility and the government  

 

 

have not fully been taken into account. Neither do the above reports[1,3,10] compare the pros and cons of PHEV or AEVs to other scenarios, notably to one based on fuel-cell and H2-fueled cars. A notable exception is an interview with Paul MacCready (AeroVironment (AVI)[12], who compares battery vs. fuel-cell vehicles(FCVs), and points out the hazard (H2-leaks), complexity & lack of infrastructure for H2-FCVs. Ref.[13] points out that a 1.2 MW fuel cell generator at a bakery only “operates at  47% electrical efficiency, but up to 80% if its waste heat can be used”[13].  

 

 

 

To draw out the scenario of a future transportation system based largely on PHEVs and  AEVs, we should define and not gloss over the huge scale and magnitude of the total US and world automotive energy consumption, and what an eventually complete conversion to renewable energy would look like.  However, some statistics are very encouraging:

 

  • Total global wind-power capacity is 5x larger than the total energy presently consumed by all sources, according to Wikipedia[14], after allowing use only of suitable locations, where wind speeds average 6.9 m/s (15.4 mi/h) at 80 m above ground.  
  • If that wind-power potential were realized with present 1-2 MW wind-turbines, they would occupy only 13% of total global land area, based on 6 turbines of 1.5 MW(peak) per km2, or 36 kW/acre[14].  Pickens’ wind turbine generation density would 20 kW(peak)/acre[15], while older farms were at 10 kW/acre.  
  • Converting all gasoline-fueled vehicles to AEVs fed solely by wind-power (with suitable storage and transmission lines) would only take 106, 3.4 and 0.16 GW(avg) for USA, Minnesota and Hawaii County (Big Island); with wind-farms covering 0.70, 0.57 and 0.23 % of the land areas (based on 20 kW(peak)/acre); which now support population densities of 0.132, 0.108 and 0.065 persons per acre, respectively.

     

The total US energy consumption rate is  ~100 quadrillion Btu/y[16],  100x1015 Btu/y, ~100 hexa Joules/y, 28 trillion kWh/y, which is equivalent to an average of  3,170 GW. Note that our average electricity use of 490 GW (=1089 x 45%, see Table 3) consumes ~ 1600 GW equivalent of fuel feedstock, or about half of our total energy budget. If a carbon tax or carbon-trade is implemented, a $300 per ton (CO2) carbon tax would raise gasoline prices by $1.20 per gallon.  

 

Discussion: see pdf enclosure, with Tables and Figures. 111-PB-08-AEV-Power-Needs-&-Benefits.pdf 

 

Conclusions  

The above discussion provided data and results to demonstrate the 4-fold benefit of BEVs vs. CVs to drivers, utility companies, government and environment. One can summarize the costs and benefits as follows:

 

  1. Drivers of AEVs or BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles): Even with a 2x higher AEV purchase price of $40k vs. $20k for new AEVs, relative to CVs (Conventional IC Vehicle), the $7,500 rebate will result in a net benefit of $5,180, after driving the BEV for 120,000 miles, relative to owning and driving a $20,000 CV. The assumed gasoline & electricity costs were 4 $/gal & 0.07 $/kWh, respectively.  

The concerns about AEV availability, high AEV cost; and low-range, batteries’ short life and high replacement cost should be largely overcome by A) The many new AEV introductions, see Table 5 by American (GM, Ford, Chrysler, Dodge, Zap[32]), Japanese (Toyota[26], Honda, Nissan[27,28]), Chinese (BYD[30]), Indian and German (BMWs Mini-E, Mercedes and Porsche[29]) automakers, providing 100-200 mile ranges, indicating a surge in competition; and B) Recent advances and improvements in Li-battery life (>5000 cycles, >10 years, >150,000 car miles), recharge time (<10 min), energy density (>100 kWh/kg) and cost (<500 $/kWh), see Tables 4 and 5 (enclosure) and ref.[31].

 

  1. Utility companies: After the assumed extreme conversion of all CVs to BEVs, the utility industry would experience an increased revenue of 22.2% in produced electricity above the present level. At 0.07 $/kWh and barring further discounts for off-peak purchases of electricity for BEVs, the added revenue amounts to an average $67 billion/year.    

   However, substantial investments are needed for means to: A) Develop and deploy additional storage, even beyond hydro-pumped storage, such as battery storage[18] and others[17]; B) Install additional grid transmission to connect distributed clean energy sources (wind, geothermal, solar-PV, biomass) and new demands by AEVs;  C) Consider the benefits of more extensive deployment of high-voltage DC transmission lines, which feature reduced losses, can uncouple different user AC grid systems[17]; and  D) Design and deploy suitable energy management systems to achieve the attractive load-sharing synergies between utilities and AEVs  

 

  1. Government: Supporting the CV to PHEV or AEV conversion with a one-time $7,500 tax credit for each vehicle to help phase-in a new batch of 250 million AEVs over 10 years will cost ~$1.9 trillion. In addition the gradual loss of the ~11% gasoline tax may eventually amounts to $64 billion/y.  

However, this will be offset by increased tax revenues from the increased (22.2%) electricity generation ($4 B/y, assuming a 6% sales tax) and increased economic activity from substituting the $428 billion/y oil-for-gasoline imports for domestic clean energy generation work ($193 billion) and increased sales tax for the higher-priced AEVs ($30 B/y) .  

 

The net result during the hypothetical 1st 10-year transition period was estimated to be a positive balance of $170 billion ($17 B/y) over the 10-year transition period. After the tax credits have been phased out, the positive balance would be over $200 billion/year, mostly fueled by the increased 3-fold and taxable economic activity of the eliminated $428 billion/year imported oil products to make gasoline.  This assumes that the price of gasoline can be maintained at ³ 4 $/gal (e.g. via direct taxation or carbon tax), relative to off-peak electricity at £ 0.07 $/kWh, so that the market can adjust to and stabilize around this scenario.

 

  1. Emission reduction: Elimination of processing and combustion of gasoline fuel was estimated to result in over 50% of CO2 emission reduction, relative to the emissions presently generated by the total oil products used in the US

     

The revolutionary shift from gasoline to battery-powered vehicles will disrupt the balance in fabrication and use of many crude-oil-based products, from diesel, aviation fuel, chemical feed-stocks, to road-asphalt and many more, and will need to be given careful consideration. Processing of bio-crude (from pyrolysis), bio-diesel from plant or algae oil and bio-polymers from cellulosic plant material will contribute to the long term sustainable scenario.  

 

Recommendations  

  • Future AEV drivers should have access to information on PHEVs and AEVs starting in high-school, together with basics on clean energy and on sustainability, environmental and cost implications of alternative automotive fuels.  Information should be provided about local providers of residential wind and solar-PV generation to charge AEVs, together with purchase and life-cycle cost comparisons via web-based sites.  
  • Automobile manufacturers should be encouraged to:  

-  Manufacture AEVs by following the path started in California, with 8 -10-year or 100,000 -150,000 mile warranties,   

-  Incentivise battery recycling initiatives and associated customer support, such as recommendations on home recharging systems via grid, and residential wind- and solar-generators.   

-  Partner with electric utilities, as announced by Toyota and EDF[26]; Renault, Nissan and EDF[27]; Renault, Nissan and Tennesee and TVA to provide zero-emission vehicles and optimized AEV infrastructure/service, including charging stations in public places to drivers[28]   

  • Government should diligently and urgently:  

-    Enact legislation to either A) stabilize the price of oil products (e.g. via variable taxation, or carbon tax***) at a level that reflects the true cost of oil products (including the >$400 billion cost of the DoD effort in the Middle East), so that clean energy has a fair chance to be competitive with much reduced or eliminated subsidies, or B) subsidize clean energy so that it remains competitive despite expected fluctuations in the price of oil products, as exemplified by the fluctuation from 148 to 80  $/barrel in just 3 months[25].  

*** A $300 per ton (CO2) carbon tax would only raise gasoline prices by $1.20 per gallon.  

-    Accelerate promotions of energy management (incl. storage[17,18]) systems to help utilities achieve higher average load factors, which also facilitates incorporation of renewable but intermittent electricity generation from wind, solar, biomass, etc systems. The US average electricity load factor is 10-20%-points below that of other countries, see Table 3 below.  

-    Set super/ultra-low-emission vehicle (ULEV, SULEV and ZEV) performance standards, as California did, to create an even and challenging but defined and attractive playing field for AEV manufacturers. Fairness may dictate a gradual introduction and enforcement of such standards  

-    Promote deployment of wind, solar-PV, geo and biomass-based renewable electricity via appropriate subsidies for industrial, commercial and residential use, but with built-in, clearly expressed sunset provisions, such as decreasing subsidies at a rate of ~ 5-6% per year, as has been practiced in Europe for some time (for example the subsidized purchase price of electricity in Germany from solar-PV systems decreases ~ 6%/year, under the guideline of socializing the cost yet privatizing the profits).  

-    Encourage the use of high-voltage DC transmission lines, because of their 5-6x lower losses, greater safety from black-outs; and lower right-of-way requirements than AC lines, as per the Bonneville Power Transmission Roadmap[17]  

 

 

Electricity Use and Generation by Country*  
  Annual Use Installed Cap Average Trans.%Dist
Country Wh/y Wmax Load in % Loss in %
Australia 2.40E+14 4.88E+10 56.14 10.0
China 2.47E+15 5.00E+11 56.50 7.5
India 5.95E+14 1.24E+11 54.73  
Japan 8.77E+14 2.17E+11 46.18 5.2
Korea 3.65E+14 6.33E+10 65.87 4.5
USA 4.00E+15 1.00E+12 45.66 6.8
Germany 5.67E+14 1.19E+11 54.43 **
Iowa 4.01E+13 1.11E+10 41.08  
Minnesota 4.36E+13 1.27E+10 39.32  
* http://asiapacificpartnership.org/ ~2006
** http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Germany/Full.html
ARITL-07-Plant-Business-Model.xls2, U.Bonne, 4-Oct-08

 

References 

 

 

  1. Stanton W. Hadley and Alexandra Tsvetkova, (ORNL), “Potential Impacts of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Regional Power Generation, Report No.: ORNL/TM-2007/150, January 2008, http://www.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/v41_1_08/regional_phev_analysis.pdf     
  2. Oak Ridge Competitive Electric Dispatch (ORCED) Model for Simulating the Operations and Costs of Bulk Electric Power Markets http://www.ornl.gov/sci/engineering_science_technology/cooling_heating_power/orced/orcedexe.htm  
  3. Massoud Jourabchi (NWP&CC, NorthWest Power and Conservation Counsel), “Impact of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Northwest Power System: A Preliminary Assessment,” Presentation to the Power Committee, Portland, OR, 2 July 2008 (Steve Crow, Exec.Dir., 503-222-5161,  http://www.nwenergy.org/publications/the-transformer/linked-docs/CouncilPHEV.pdf  
  4. Linda Stern, "When to Go Hybrid," (The Tip Sheet; CARS), Newsweek, Vol. CLII, No. 13, p. 66, 29-Sept-08. Car sales are flat, dealers are hungry and the price of gasoline is still threatening to revisit the $4-a-gallon levels it saw in July. Does that make it an ideal time to sell the clunker and spring for a fuel-efficient hybrid?  Maybe not. It's true that as gas prices rise, hybrids will pay for themselves more quickly than they used to. ...its probably more cost-effective to keep the gasoline care a while longer. Even if you need a new car, you'd probably be better off buying a regular-engine compact car instead of a hybrid, suggests Jesse Toprak of www.Edmunds.com. Those regular compacts are almost as fuel-efficient as most hybrids and cost far less. The best candidates for saving money are people who drive at least 15,000 miles a year, mostly in city traffic, and "keep a car until the wheels fall opff", says Topek. Do the math yourself at www.politicalcalculations.blogspot.com, click on "Should You Trade in Your Gas Guzzler?"  
  5. C.Caryl and A.Kashiwagi, “Leading the Charge,” (Enterprise | Energy), Newsweek, Vol. CLII, No. 14, p.E14, 6-Oct.-08.  
  6. AIST 2004 (Japan) New Ionic Liquid Electrolyte Developed for High Charge-Discharge Efficiency of Lithium Electrode”, achieved 97% charge-discharge efficiency. http://www.aist.go.jp/aist_e/latest_research/2004/20041213/20041213.html  

- MIT Develops New Lithium Battery for Hybrids: Li(Ni0.5Mn0.5)O2  16 February 2006 http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/02/mit_develops_ne.html   

- Jack Rosebro, “Nissan Tests Next-Gen Li-Ion Packs in US,“ 15 February 2008. Nissan Motor has been field-testing a fleet of 20 Tino hybrids equipped with its next-generation Li-ion battery packs for the last three years in the US, with up to 240,000 km (150,000 miles) accumulated on one of the vehicles. Nissan made a limited introduction of the Tino hybrid in Japan in 2000. Charge-discharg efficiency of NiMH: 83.4%; Li-Ion/Mn2O4: 95.1 %. http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/02/nissan-tests-ne.html    

- Jan L. Allen (USARL), “Kinetics of the Phase Transition During Discharge of the LiFePO4 Electrode,”  Lithium Mobile Power- 2nd Edition, Knowledge Foundadtion, March 2008   

- EnerDel, Indianapolis, IN.  LiMn2O4 ,  http://www.ener1.com/pdfs/ENEIPresentationNYSSA.pdf http://www.jefferies.com/pdfs/confs/060508/Ener1Inc.pdf  

- “Super-Charge ion Battery” (SCiB) by Toshiba, using LiTiO4 at anode, 21 May 2008; can recharge to 90% capacity in < 5 min., it's safe, has ~10-year lifespan. and operate down to -30°C. http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/toshiba-develop.html  

  1. Advanced Technology and Energy Efficiency. Where does the energy go? Fuel-to-wheel: 12-18%;  DoE, http://www.fueleconomy.gov/FEG/atv.shtml  
  2.  “Well-to-wheel” average efficiencies; emission levels now corresponding to 220 g-CO2/km in US.  New regulations in Europe will require <170 g-CO2/km, and down to 110 g-CO2/km,  http://courses.washington.edu/me341/oct22v2.htm  
  3. CARB (California Air Resources Board): Off-peak EV charging at as low as 0.05 $/kWh. http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/factsheets/evinformation.pdf   

10.      Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, and Robert Pratt (PNNL), “Impact assessment of plug-in hybrid vehicles on electric utilities and regional U.S. power grids. Part 1: technical analysis, Regional Grids and Plug-in Hybrids; and Part 2: Economic AssessmentPacific Northwest National Laboratory,. Richland, WA, (2007), http://www.pnl.gov/energy/eed/etd/pdfs/phev_feasibility_analysis_combined.pdf    

11.      Edison Electric Institute. Generation data, and transmission & distrib. losses at http://www.eei.org/industry_issues/industry_overview_and_statistics/industry_statistics/index.htm#generation  and http://www.eei.org/magazine/editorial_content/nonav_stories/2007-07-01-DELIVERY.pdf 

12.      Paul MacCready (AeroVironment (AVI), founded, was Chairman of the Board of Directors of AVI and died Aug.’07, http://www.avinc.com/evtestsystems.asp ), “BEVs versus FCVs,” interview 2 Aug. 2005 by Ron Cogan, http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/93.html. Excerpts: The battery-powered car is a great goal for the future, but is a bit expensive now because of the cost of the batteries. Incidentally, the lithium cells (also used in AV’s drone airplanes) would offer about 200 Wh/kg, compared to 35 Wh/kg of lead-acid cells or about 60 Wh/kg for NiMH.  Lithium cells have very high power outputs and we expect over 50 % greater energy/kg in a few years. Fuel cells do not deliver enough energy to be really useful for cars and a vast new charging system would have to be created to supply hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). Considering all the benefits and disadvantages of hydrogen/fuel cell systems for standard cars, the potentials seem too few. .. carrying capacity (range) is low, complexity and costs (to compress H2) are high,… and H2 leakage represents a serious problem. The government’s virtual exclusive attention and support for hydrogen fuel cell cars, not battery-powered ones, is decidedly strange. .. The cars that we should have for the next 5 - 15 years should be hybrids with enough electricity built in to provide all your transportation for maybe a 60-100 mile range. The average driver of such a car would operate exclusively on the battery for 80-90 percent of the time, with the few trips farther out requiring use of the gasoline motor to go any distance they want. As the cost of batteries goes down in a couple of years, the price for 80 miles will be low enough so this is a very logical direction. If you use gasoline as the other element to go long distances and you find in five to seven years that the price of batteries keeps going down, you’ll be able to get 300 miles from your battery and you won’t need the other gasoline power source in your car. It won’t matter whether you get that one or the model that goes just 80-100 miles on battery power, with gasoline used for long distances. If the gasoline costs $5 a gallon by then…it won’t matter because you won’t use very much of it.  

13.      Ariel Schwartz, “Pepperidge Farm opens largest fuel cell plant in CT, USA,” 15 October 2008, http://cleantechnica.com/2008/10/15/pepperidge-farm-installs-largest-fuel-cell-plant-in-united-states/ and http://www.green-energy-news.com/nwslnks/clips1008/oct08020.html  of 1.2 MW. October 16, 2008 – Vol.13 No.30  

14.      Theoretical Potential of Wind Power, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power  

15.      T.Boone Pickens Mesa Energy Co. in Pampa to build a Wind Project in northern Gray County and southern Roberts County to consist of 2000-2700 tower wind turbines on some 200k acres to produce 4GW(peak), in addition to a 750-megawatt coal-fired plant to supply energy when the wind isn't blowing and a 600-megawatt natural gas-fired plant to handle peak loads and a 320-mile transmission line to the Dallas area to tap the fast-growing urban markets of North Texas.for a total investment of $10.5 billion  (~2.3 $/Wpk-wind). http://www.thepampanews.com/articles/2007/08/24/news/1news.txt.    

16.      Energy Information Administration, DOE, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/sep_sum/html/sum_btu_tot.html  http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/state/state_energy_profiles.cfm?sid=MN  Minnesota http://www.co.hawaii.hi.us/rd/hawaii_county_baseline_energ.pdf   Hawaii  

17.      Energy Storage Association, http://www.electricitystorage.org/pubs/2008/NewESACharts2008v01.pdf   and Technology Innovation, Bonneville Power Administration, "Transmission Technology Roadmap," September 2006, http://www.bpa.gov/corporate/business/innovation/docs/2006/RM-06_Transmission.pdf  

18.      Dick Kelly (Xcel Energy Chairman, President and CEO), “Xcel Energy Launches Groundbreaking Wind-to-Battery Project,” 5 March 2008. The sodium-sulfur battery by NGK Insulators Ltd. is commercially available and versions of this technology are already being used in Japan and in a few US applications. The 7.2 MWh, 1 MW battery is the size of two semi trailers and weighs ~80 tons.  Long-term durability of ~ 15 years. Energy system efficiency for charge-discharge: ~75%. Operating temperature is approx 300°C. Cost ~ 0.35 $/kWh and ~ 2 $/W[5]. A 1 M$ grant is pending. http://www.ngk.co.jp/english/products/power/nas/index.htmlhttp://www.xcelenergy.com/Company/Newsroom/News%20Releases/Pages/Xcel_Energy_launches_groundbreaking_wind_to_battery_project.aspx http://minnesotafuturists.pbwiki.com/Batteries+In+Depth#XcelEnergyLaunchesGroundbreakingWindtoBatteryProject  

- see also Steve Eckroad (EPRI), “Stationary Sodium-Sulfur(NaS) Battery,” 704-595-2223,   

seckroad@epri.comhttp://mydocs.epri.com/docs/public/000000000001011966.pdf May 2006-2008  

19.      Vehicle distance traveled on all US roads, over time in years http://bioage.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2008/06/19/dotapril2.png  

20.      Number of U.S. Aircraft, Vehicles, Vessels, and Other Conveyances. Tables. http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_11.html  

21.      Daniel M. Kammen†,‡*, Derek M. Lemoine†, Samuel M. Arons† and Holmes Hummel†, "Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions from Deploying Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles," (Energy and Resources Group, 310 Barrows Hall, UC-Berkeley, Berkeley, CA and Richard and Rhonda Goldman School of Public Policy, UC-Berkeley; † Energy and Resources Group ‡ Goldman School of Public Policy; * 510.642.1640;kammen@berkeley.edu) Brookings-Google Plug-in Hybrid Summit, Washington, DC, July 2008. Publication date: September 7, 2008  

22.      C.Samaras and K. Meisterling (Green Design Institute, Carnegie-Mellon), “Life cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from plug-in hybrid vehicles: Implications for policy”. Environ. Sci. & Technol. 2008, 42 (9), 3170-3176.  

23.      Xcel Energy Wind-Source Program (June 5, 2005), whereby more than 11,000 Minnesotans have signed up for Windsource, choosing to purchase some or all of their electricity from wind turbines. Customers can purchase blocks of energy for as little as $2 per month extra for 100-kilowatt hours of Windsource power (the average home uses about 750 kilowatt hours of electricity per month). The premium paid by customers goes directly toward adding wind turbines to supply the amount of wind-generated electricity purchased. To sign up, customers can call 1-800 481-4700 http://www.xcelenergy.com/Company/Newsroom/News%20Releases/Pages/NREL_Xcel_Energy_sign_photovoltaic_development_agreement.aspx  

24.      Menahem Anderman, Fritz R. Kalhammer, Donald MacArthur, ”Advanced Batteries for Electric Vehicles: An Assessment of Performance, Cost and Availability. BTAP 2000 FINAL REPORT.” Prepared for State of California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA,  May 2000 http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/2000review/BTAPsum.pdfField experience shows that the power of the 26-33 kWh NiMH batteries($225-350 $/kWh for volumes up to 100,000/y in 2000) installed in the different EV types deployed in California by major automobile manufacturers is generally sufficient for acceptable acceleration and speed. Bench tests, and recent technology improvements in charging        and cycle life at elevated temperature, indicate that NiMH batteries have realistic potential to last for 100,000 vehicle miles.  

25.      Myra P. Saefong (MarketWatch), "Financial market's turmoil helps highlight demand destruction," Last update: 3:49 p.m. EDT Oct. 2, 2008. Shows graph of oil prices vs. time http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2096080/posts?page=1  

26.      Toyota recently entered into a partnership with EDF to promote the new generation “Plug-in” Prius hybrid electric vehicle. The batteries used in these hybrid vehicles can be charged with a simple electric plug, offering increased power supply for short journeys. France already has a high number of public recharging stations already established in large urban areas. http://www.invest-in-france.org/uploads/files-en/08-06-25_155311_PR_New_Motorisations_June2008.pdf     

27.      "Renault-Nissan, EDF in electric car partnership," 9 October 2008, http://www.cleantech.com/news/3671/renault-nissan-edf-electric-car-partnership  The companies plan to launch zero emission vehicles in the country in 2011. Plan to jointly develop an infrastructure with Paris-based EDF to recharge electric vehicles and to manage the range of the cars. The Renault-Nissan Alliance has also made deals to bring its electric vehicles to Israel, Denmark, Portugal, Tennessee in the U.S., and the Kanagawa Prefecture in Japan, as well as with Shai Agassi, CEO and founder of Palo Alto, Calif.-based electric vehicle charging company Project Better Place, in Israel and Denmark  

28.      The Renault-Nissan Alliance and the State of Tennessee are forming a partnership to promote zero-emission vehicles, including electric vehicles, in Middle Tennessee with participation from the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and other partners.  22 July 2008 www.nissannews.com/pdf.do?id=518  

29.      eRUF All-Electric Porsche Powered by UQM, Axeon. 20 October 2008. The recently introduced eRUF Porsche-based AEV sports car is being powered by a UQM PowerPhase 150 electric propulsion system. The eRUF Model A is being developed by RUF Automobile GmbH. It accelerates from zero to 100 kph in less than 7 s, features top speed of 225 km/h (140 mph), estimated range per charge is 250-320 km (155-199 miles), a 50.72 kWh Li-ion FePO4 battery pack from Axeon plc. http://www.greencarcongress.com/  

30.      BYD Motors F6DM, World’s First Mass Market PHEV, 2nd half of 2008:  2nd half of 2008: 20 kWh battery, 65-mile range, made in Shenzhen, China. Follow-on in 2009: F3DM, 100-mile range AEV, www.byd.com  

31.      Paul J. Werbos (PhD, lead analyst for long-term energy futures 1979-89 at EIA/DOE), "China, US, Japan and Korea: Who China, US, Japan and Korea: Who Will Win the Race towards Plug-In Cars? http://www.werbos.com/E/PlugIns.pdf ~4/2008 and http://www.werbos.com/energy.htm  

32.      ZAP Truck XL, availability: Fall 2008, Retail: $14,950 w/charger on-board, 1,874 lbs, payload: 770 lbs. At http://www.zapworld.com/electric-vehicles/electric-cars/zap-truck-xl $1,500 AEV-mounted solar panel avail. Since 1994 ZAP has been a world leader for electric and advanced technology vehicles, delivering more than 100,000 electric vehicles in more than 75 countries. Whether it's a Xebra Sedan, Xebra Truck, Zapino or the Original Zappy 3 Scooter, we can help you go green today with 100% electric transportation. Headq. at 501 Fourth Street, Santa Rosa, CA 95401, (707) 525-8658  

- Zap Alias electric car retails at $32,500 not including shipping, options, dealer prep, taxes, registration or doc fees; 0 – 60 mph : 7.7 sec; Vmax: 100 mph; EV range: 100+ miles (160.9 km) ; Weight: 1612.6 lbs (733 kg)  

-   Zap-X electric car, availability goal: 2010, Retail: $60k, w/ Li-ion battery. http://www.zapworld.com/zap-x-crossover

 

 

On the Availability of Lithium for AEVs  by Ulrich Bonne, 26 Nov. 2008

 

We are short: 

Tyler Hamilton:  http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/175800  

Chris Rhodes: http://www.scitizen.com/stories/Future-Energies/2008/06/World-Lithium-Supplies-and-Electric-Vehicles-/ 

 

There is enough:  

R. Keith Evans: http://www.worldlithium.com./An_Abundance_of_Lithium_1.html  

                    March 2008 http://www.worldlithium.com./An_Abundance_of_Lithium_1_files/An%20Abundance%20of%20Lithium.pdf  

Concerns regarding lithium availability for hybrid or electric vehicle batteries or other foreseeable  

applications are unfounded.  Annual use ~18,000 tonnes; recoverable: 28,000,000 tonnes 

Karen Pease: http://gas2.org/2008/10/13/lithium-counterpoint-no-shortage-for-electric-cars/    

Lithium-ion batteries will only be superceded by superior technology, not by lithium shortage.   

See http://greenoptions.com/author/karenrei and related. Her battery paper is the best and most comprehensive paper on this subject, that I have seen (UB) 

 

Analysis  

Ulrich Bonne: AEVs would need at most 7.5 kg/100 kWh batteries (for 400-mile range), if all Li participates in the charge and discharge process.  

7 g of Li = 1 mol = 96500 Coulombs = 94 Wh; 1 kWh ~ 75 g-Li; 100 kWh = 7.5 kg-Li = >400-mile range, but I do not know how much (%) "passive" Li is in a battery.  http://lithiumabundance.blogspot.com/ asserts that the world supply of Li is > 24 million tons, i.e. enough for 24,000,000/0.0075 = 3.2 billion AEVs, or 3x more than all the "light-duty vehicles" on the roads today, world-wide, and > 10x more than all US vehicles. With average vehicle life of >15 years, that would be a sufficient supply for 3.2 x 15 ~ 50 years, if only AEVs were made of 400-mile range, and Li was not usd for PCs and cell phones etc, at 18,000 tons/y or ~ 1 million tons in 50 years

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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